On the campaign trail with GDL (continued)
28 May 2016
We are now in the third week of the campaign and few more weeks to go till the 2nd of July. Many promises have been made from both sides of politics. While the government is campaigning on Growth and Jobs, the opposition, the Australian Labor Party (ALP), is more focused on social issues like Education and Health. So far, and according to the polls, the ALP is doing better. The second polls released since the beginning of the campaign put ALP in front. According to the Morgan Research released yesterday, if an election was held today, the ALP would win 85 seats in parliament and governing in their own right without the support of the Greens or independents.
Despite the polls giving Labor in front, I am not convinced at this stage that the ALP will win the forthcoming elections. I explain:
1.Votes will not forget the chaos which prevailed during the Rudd-Gillard years. They are not yet convinced that the ALP is starting afresh and that they will not repeat the gaffes of the years they were in command. The greatest gaffe was the disunity and the inner quarellings.
2. The other big gaffe of the ALP was their policy on the asylum seekers and refugees. During the time the ALP was in power, they reversed the Temporary Protection Visa and boatloads of illegal asylum seekers invaded our shores. The people smugglers trade flourished under the ALP years as they knew that the ALP is soft on the issue and that they cannot and will not stop the boats. Furthermore this trade saw the death of some one hundred people when some boats sank.
The opposition, led by the controversial Tony Abbott, won the elections particularly on that issue.
3. The ALP instead of learning the lesson, and even though they have voted in the party convention to stop the boats, divisions have emerged during the campaign that they are not united on stopping the boats. The biggest blunder came from Anthony Albanese, a front bench of the ALP, who cannot say whether he will sent the illegal refugees back and stop the boats. His biggest blunder was to say that they will send the refugees to be processed in Canada. This means that the boats can come and they will send them to Canada. This is music to the ears of people smugglers and the illegals including those economic "refugees" who are taking advantage to get into Australia by the backdoor.
4. Besides Albo, there are apparently 20 other candidates of the ALP who do not support the policy of stopping the boats. It is now perceived that once in power the ALP will be soft on border protection and the boats will start coming back.
5. On the economic front the ALP has trouble to define how they will stimulate the economy and create jobs. It is right to spend more on health and education and other popular social policies but for that the government needs money. There are two ways of raising money, either to make savings in the budget or to raise taxes. Until now the ALP has not convinced the voters where the money will come from and how they will fund all their promises.
6. Australia is going through a tough time with the end of the mining boom and low commodity prices. The budget has reached $39 billion deficit, we are still borrowing and paying debts with interest, and there is no signs of big economic recovery whether locally and on the world stage.
7. Bill Shorten is still not a popular figure even though he is campaigning hard and people starting to know him. He has however done well in the first debate and another one coming soon. Nevertheless he does not have the charisma of a great leader and there is doubt whether he can be a good and great Prime Minister.
In view of the points raised above, I am quite skeptical that Bill Shorten will be our next PM. But I can be wrong as the government is not doing well neither and if the voters can ignore these weaknesses of the ALP and be more convinced by their strong social policies then there is a chance for the ALP to come back.
George at Studio 2GLF 89.3 fm
Broadcasting Emission Kontak
Friday 27 May 2016
Friday 20 May 2016
On the campaign trail: Elections 2016
Australian Politics
On the campaign trail by GDL
It is now two weeks since the electoral campaign has started and there are another six weeks to go.
The campaign looks more presidential as the media is focused on the two leaders Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten, as we do not see much of the candidates.
The first debate between the two leaders, in front of 100 undecided,was won by the opposition leader by 42 and 29 to the Prime Minister. The next debate has not been scheduled yet and maybe next week we will see the Treasurer and the shadow Treasurer debating.
Here is a few points noted till now:
The gaffes of the ALP
While I mentioned in my previous blog that the ALP is projecting a united party that was not the case. During the campaign there are noted divisions within the party on the issue of boat people and refugees. At the last party convention, it was voted that the ALP will be strong on border protection, people smuggles, and maintain offshore processing, but some 17 candidates are now expressing opposing views. This division and being soft on border protection are causing much damage to the party and the government is exploiting the division as the inability of the leader to control his troops. The issue of refugees and boat people is a a very sensitive one which divides the nation. Most Australians were enraged to see so many boats with illegals arriving on our shores during the time the ALP was in power so much that the campaign of the then opposition to stop the boats were overwhelmingly endorsed by the voters. Refugees and illegal immigrants are a big concern to Australians as they are using the backdoor, are mostly illiterate, unskilled and cost taxpayers billions of dollars. It looks like the ALP has not learned their lessons from the last elections and may face the same backlash again on that issue.
The other gaffe of the ALP is that one of its candidates, David Feeney, is now a considered as a cheat and a fraud for not declaring to the tax office that he has an investment property worth $2.3m, which he negatively geared and was also claiming accommodation fees while living a house belonging to his wife. Voters were expecting that he be dis-endorsed as he has caused damage to the party and he is now sure not to be elected.
The shortcomings of the Government:
According to the recent polls, it looks like the change of leader is no biting as expected. For his first campaigning as PM, Malcolm Turnbull lost the debate and according to commentators, he was not impressive. Furthermore, it is now revealed that the cost of the National Broadband Network while Malcolm was Minister of Communication has blown out.
The Greens for their part are the same lunatics as they have always been with their idiosyncratic policies. They want the boats of illegals to the welcomed and want to increase the intake of refugees to 50,000 !! If this is not crazy then i don't know what it is.
The polls of today (21/5/2016) shows that the popularity of the PM has gone down and that the two parties are neck to neck on 50%. Many analysts are talking about a hug parliament which is not good for the country as there will be bargaining, if not back mailing, from independents or the greens. We have had that bad experience when Julia Gillard was Prime Minister.
To be continued....
On the campaign trail by GDL
It is now two weeks since the electoral campaign has started and there are another six weeks to go.
The campaign looks more presidential as the media is focused on the two leaders Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten, as we do not see much of the candidates.
The first debate between the two leaders, in front of 100 undecided,was won by the opposition leader by 42 and 29 to the Prime Minister. The next debate has not been scheduled yet and maybe next week we will see the Treasurer and the shadow Treasurer debating.
Here is a few points noted till now:
The gaffes of the ALP
While I mentioned in my previous blog that the ALP is projecting a united party that was not the case. During the campaign there are noted divisions within the party on the issue of boat people and refugees. At the last party convention, it was voted that the ALP will be strong on border protection, people smuggles, and maintain offshore processing, but some 17 candidates are now expressing opposing views. This division and being soft on border protection are causing much damage to the party and the government is exploiting the division as the inability of the leader to control his troops. The issue of refugees and boat people is a a very sensitive one which divides the nation. Most Australians were enraged to see so many boats with illegals arriving on our shores during the time the ALP was in power so much that the campaign of the then opposition to stop the boats were overwhelmingly endorsed by the voters. Refugees and illegal immigrants are a big concern to Australians as they are using the backdoor, are mostly illiterate, unskilled and cost taxpayers billions of dollars. It looks like the ALP has not learned their lessons from the last elections and may face the same backlash again on that issue.
The other gaffe of the ALP is that one of its candidates, David Feeney, is now a considered as a cheat and a fraud for not declaring to the tax office that he has an investment property worth $2.3m, which he negatively geared and was also claiming accommodation fees while living a house belonging to his wife. Voters were expecting that he be dis-endorsed as he has caused damage to the party and he is now sure not to be elected.
The shortcomings of the Government:
According to the recent polls, it looks like the change of leader is no biting as expected. For his first campaigning as PM, Malcolm Turnbull lost the debate and according to commentators, he was not impressive. Furthermore, it is now revealed that the cost of the National Broadband Network while Malcolm was Minister of Communication has blown out.
The Greens for their part are the same lunatics as they have always been with their idiosyncratic policies. They want the boats of illegals to the welcomed and want to increase the intake of refugees to 50,000 !! If this is not crazy then i don't know what it is.
The polls of today (21/5/2016) shows that the popularity of the PM has gone down and that the two parties are neck to neck on 50%. Many analysts are talking about a hug parliament which is not good for the country as there will be bargaining, if not back mailing, from independents or the greens. We have had that bad experience when Julia Gillard was Prime Minister.
To be continued....
Monday 9 May 2016
Australian Politics , Labor is back with a New Look
Labor is back, it is a New Labor
by GDL
9 May 2016
It was predictable that for the last general elections the ALP (Australian Labor Party) was going towards a catastrophic defeat because of the divisions, poor leadership and cheap politics carried out by Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard. The wave of disconted so so much against the ALP that the unpopular, conservative and controversial Tony Abbott ( Mikey Mouse gran zoreil) won the elections with a large majority where the ALP lost 21 Seats.
The polls today showed that the table has turned and Labor is in a winning position. This looks like a miracle when looking back as the results of 2013 general elections and considering that Bill Shorten, the new Labor leader, has never been more popular that the sitting Prime Ministers. What are the factors that have turned the voters against the conservative government even though the have a new popular leader, Malcolm Turnbull ? To answer this question we have to go back and look at the past three years of the Liberal-National records in government.
The conservative right wing government of Tony Abbott, as soon in power, showed their true colours and in their 2014 budget presented by Joe Hockey (Donald Duck also known as the fat man) smashed the working class, the families, the pensioners, the students, the mums and dads. They make big cuts to Education and Health and proclaimed that from now on Australians have to live within their means, The coalition had campaign hard and loud on the ALP economic mismanagement, that the budget deficit was unprecedented, the level of debt as a percentage of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) was too high and there is urgent need to cut spending and bring the budget back to surplus as soon as possible. The way to achieve this for Donald Duck and Mickey Mouse was to cut welfare and the socials services as declared that the age of entitlement is over otherwise we will end up like Greece. Australians are no fools, We can never be compared to Greece or any of the PIGS as we have a solid economy which keeps growing. We have unlimited mineral resources (including uranium), we have a healthy Agro Industry and we are a net exporter of energy.We have strong commercial ties with our Asian partners: China, Japan, South Korea, India, Indonesia among others.
Budget deficit is not a cancer, we have been living with it for years and not many countries have a budget surplus these days. Deficit or surplus is just an accounting exercise and a temporary situation which does not mean that our country is bankrupt and that soon the IMF will come in tell us what to do. The way to surplus is a gradual path which should not be done by hard and drastic measures and surely not at the expense of poor, the working class and pensioners and this is what the coalition government wanted to do with the 2014 budget. The irony or paradox is that the same people who was crying foul and scaring the voters about budget deficit, have themselves blown out the deficit.When they took office it was $36 billion and today it is $39.9 billion !!!! Suddenly there is no budget emergency and no surplus in sight.
Even though Abbott and Hockey had to back off and eat their humble pies, the Australia voters have not forgotten their threats and their true colours. The government led by Mikey Mouse and Donald Duck never recovered from that blunder and since then the polls were showing that the government was in trouble. The polls were so bad that the Liberals removed their sitting PM and their Treasurer, the same thing for which they have nailed the coffin of the ALP at the last elections.
So, to be in a better position the Liberals chose a new leader, Malcolm Turnbull, a popular figure even among the Labor voters as he looks a nice guy, not arrogant, not a conservative and he presented himself like a social democrat or a centrist. He believes in climate change and is for marriage equality. Immediately after the change of leadership and PM, the polls bounced back in favour of the government. But there started the trouble for the Liberals, the ex-PM and the die hard conservatives and far right wingers of the party, like Cory Bernardy, Kevin Andrews, Eric Abbett joined by the conservative right wingers journalists and commentators like Andrew Bolt, Alan Jones, Chris Kenny and Rohan Dean, Miranda Devine, Ray Adley, etc... started to undermine the leadership of Malcolm Turnbull. The worm is already in the fruit and division within the Liberals was obvious.
Under pressure from the conservative wing, Malcolm Turnbull backed off from all his progressive ideas and became Mr Do Nothing. Indeed for the past six months that he has been leader he did NOTHING to upset the conservatives. He was going in circle with some policies without implementing any. His excuse was that people should wait for the May 2016 where all will be revealed. Meanwhile Malcolm's popularity was melting like snow in the sun.
The famous and long awaited budget was presented by the new Treasurer Scott Morrison last Tuesday and the most striking part of it was tax cuts to small and big business and tax cuts for those who earn $80 K and more. This tax cut was damming as it again showed the true colours of the Liberal i.e protecting the big end of town, the rich, the wealthy. Those earning one million dollars or more got a tax cut of some $17,000 while the working class and the middle class, the battlers, the teachers, nurses, council workers, shift workers, got nothing from the budget.
On the other hand the taxpayers will continue to pay for the BMWs, the Mercedes and travels of the business owners and whatever they use to offset the tax not to mention how the taxpayers will continue to pay for the negative gearing of those who own up to 49 houses!!!!
So this is the backdrop. These are only some factors that enraged the voters and made them come back to New Labor who meanwhile is united and has had the courage to put forward some brave policies and continues to fight for the working and middle class and for more funding to the schools and hospitals, putting people first.
The elections are still far away (on the 2nd July) the campaign has started. It is not to say that the ALP will win but according to the recent polls, the government is not sure neither of retaining government. The bets are open, there is no favourite at the time of writing.
The morale; You cannot take the voters fore-granted or take them for a ride. They know how to react.
by GDL
9 May 2016
It was predictable that for the last general elections the ALP (Australian Labor Party) was going towards a catastrophic defeat because of the divisions, poor leadership and cheap politics carried out by Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard. The wave of disconted so so much against the ALP that the unpopular, conservative and controversial Tony Abbott ( Mikey Mouse gran zoreil) won the elections with a large majority where the ALP lost 21 Seats.
The polls today showed that the table has turned and Labor is in a winning position. This looks like a miracle when looking back as the results of 2013 general elections and considering that Bill Shorten, the new Labor leader, has never been more popular that the sitting Prime Ministers. What are the factors that have turned the voters against the conservative government even though the have a new popular leader, Malcolm Turnbull ? To answer this question we have to go back and look at the past three years of the Liberal-National records in government.
The conservative right wing government of Tony Abbott, as soon in power, showed their true colours and in their 2014 budget presented by Joe Hockey (Donald Duck also known as the fat man) smashed the working class, the families, the pensioners, the students, the mums and dads. They make big cuts to Education and Health and proclaimed that from now on Australians have to live within their means, The coalition had campaign hard and loud on the ALP economic mismanagement, that the budget deficit was unprecedented, the level of debt as a percentage of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) was too high and there is urgent need to cut spending and bring the budget back to surplus as soon as possible. The way to achieve this for Donald Duck and Mickey Mouse was to cut welfare and the socials services as declared that the age of entitlement is over otherwise we will end up like Greece. Australians are no fools, We can never be compared to Greece or any of the PIGS as we have a solid economy which keeps growing. We have unlimited mineral resources (including uranium), we have a healthy Agro Industry and we are a net exporter of energy.We have strong commercial ties with our Asian partners: China, Japan, South Korea, India, Indonesia among others.
Budget deficit is not a cancer, we have been living with it for years and not many countries have a budget surplus these days. Deficit or surplus is just an accounting exercise and a temporary situation which does not mean that our country is bankrupt and that soon the IMF will come in tell us what to do. The way to surplus is a gradual path which should not be done by hard and drastic measures and surely not at the expense of poor, the working class and pensioners and this is what the coalition government wanted to do with the 2014 budget. The irony or paradox is that the same people who was crying foul and scaring the voters about budget deficit, have themselves blown out the deficit.When they took office it was $36 billion and today it is $39.9 billion !!!! Suddenly there is no budget emergency and no surplus in sight.
Even though Abbott and Hockey had to back off and eat their humble pies, the Australia voters have not forgotten their threats and their true colours. The government led by Mikey Mouse and Donald Duck never recovered from that blunder and since then the polls were showing that the government was in trouble. The polls were so bad that the Liberals removed their sitting PM and their Treasurer, the same thing for which they have nailed the coffin of the ALP at the last elections.
So, to be in a better position the Liberals chose a new leader, Malcolm Turnbull, a popular figure even among the Labor voters as he looks a nice guy, not arrogant, not a conservative and he presented himself like a social democrat or a centrist. He believes in climate change and is for marriage equality. Immediately after the change of leadership and PM, the polls bounced back in favour of the government. But there started the trouble for the Liberals, the ex-PM and the die hard conservatives and far right wingers of the party, like Cory Bernardy, Kevin Andrews, Eric Abbett joined by the conservative right wingers journalists and commentators like Andrew Bolt, Alan Jones, Chris Kenny and Rohan Dean, Miranda Devine, Ray Adley, etc... started to undermine the leadership of Malcolm Turnbull. The worm is already in the fruit and division within the Liberals was obvious.
Under pressure from the conservative wing, Malcolm Turnbull backed off from all his progressive ideas and became Mr Do Nothing. Indeed for the past six months that he has been leader he did NOTHING to upset the conservatives. He was going in circle with some policies without implementing any. His excuse was that people should wait for the May 2016 where all will be revealed. Meanwhile Malcolm's popularity was melting like snow in the sun.
The famous and long awaited budget was presented by the new Treasurer Scott Morrison last Tuesday and the most striking part of it was tax cuts to small and big business and tax cuts for those who earn $80 K and more. This tax cut was damming as it again showed the true colours of the Liberal i.e protecting the big end of town, the rich, the wealthy. Those earning one million dollars or more got a tax cut of some $17,000 while the working class and the middle class, the battlers, the teachers, nurses, council workers, shift workers, got nothing from the budget.
On the other hand the taxpayers will continue to pay for the BMWs, the Mercedes and travels of the business owners and whatever they use to offset the tax not to mention how the taxpayers will continue to pay for the negative gearing of those who own up to 49 houses!!!!
So this is the backdrop. These are only some factors that enraged the voters and made them come back to New Labor who meanwhile is united and has had the courage to put forward some brave policies and continues to fight for the working and middle class and for more funding to the schools and hospitals, putting people first.
The elections are still far away (on the 2nd July) the campaign has started. It is not to say that the ALP will win but according to the recent polls, the government is not sure neither of retaining government. The bets are open, there is no favourite at the time of writing.
The morale; You cannot take the voters fore-granted or take them for a ride. They know how to react.
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