International affairs and politics: who are behind ISIL

International Politics

“The Islam religion was founded by Mohammed in the seventh century. In 622 he founded the first Islamic state, a theocracy in Medina, a city in western Saudi Arabia located north of Mecca. There are two branches of the religion he founded.                                                   The Sunni branch believes that the first four caliphs--Mohammed's successors--rightfully took his place as the leaders of Muslims. They recognize the heirs of the four caliphs as legitimate religious leaders. These heirs ruled continuously in the Arab world until the break-up of the Ottoman Empire following the end of the First World War.”

- See more at: http://historynewsnetwork.org/article/934#sthash.wFVkOW54.dpuf

Who are behind ISIL?

By GDL

At first view ISIL looks like a horde of renegades and criminals whose are using Islam too kill innocent people and attain their objectives. But what are these objectives?                                                          

The Sunnis according to history is a breakaway group who did not agree on the successor of Mohamed. (See above)  Sunnis are largely majority in Islamic countries and in the world. The Shiites or Shias are only majority in Iran and Iraq.

ISIL stands for Islamic State of Iraq Levant.  They are also called ISIS for Islamic State of Iraq and Syria or Daesh. Many commentators and analysts think that ISIL are terrorists who are using Islam to reposition themselves as an Islamic State. A state like the other nation states. They refuse to be treated as a group and this is why they want to conquer territories and land.                                  Other analysts think that ISIL wants to re-establish the Ottoman Empire, as a revenge to how the west dismantled that Islamic Empire and partitioned the Middle East. To rebuild that Islamic Empire ISIL needs money, a strong army and arms and ammunitions. ISIL analysed how the West destroyed Al Qaeda as the Al Qaeda’s structure was weak with no army. So ISIL took another approach. It starts by proclaiming that Islam is in danger and that moderate Muslims and the Shiites are not strong enough to face the west, to combat westernisation from corrupting the minds of Muslims through their marketing and globalisation.

ISIL calls for Muslims all over the world to support and join them in the name of Islam. The call was favourably answered and Muslims from all over joined them. As they gather strength and money to buy arms, they started a rampage by killing mercilessly all those who are not on their side. The Shiites were the first victims through mass execution. Then they started kidnapping westerners asking for ransoms and beheaded them on camera. And the rest everyone knows with horror and disgust.

As their army grew, they started invading part of Iraq particularly the areas rich in oil. By taking control of the oil wells, they sell the oils to Turkey and Syria and in return buy more sophisticated weapons. They continue their conquests of territories in Iraq and win because of the weak Iraqi army.  Having taken over the oil wells of Iraq, they move into Syria amidst the chaotic situation created by Bashar El Assad.

The heart of the question is where are ISIL getting all the money and from who they are buying the weapons? The answers are simple. The money comes from the proceeds of the oils. The weapons come from the countries which manufacture weapons. It is either the USA, or China or Russia or France or UK. Shocking isn’t it?

There lies also all the hypocrisy. While they are all condemning ISIL for the atrocities, they are at the same time selling weapons to these barbars and criminals. Someone somewhere is benefitting for the wars waged by ISIL by selling arms to them and as everyone one knows these weapons are not cheap. Now what about the airstrikes on ISIL? Are these not smoke screens? ISIL has very sophisticated means of technology at they do not flock at the same place. They can easily misled the planes event with their radars. Have you also notices that there are no official figures of how many deaths these airstrikes are causing?

When asked why the USA and the allies do not apply the same force they did for Operation Desert Storm or the invasion of Iraq, the answer is that they do not want to make the same mistake they did in Iraq. Yes that was a big mistake that led to chaos and Bagdad became the most dangerous city in the world. But the mistake is still bigger when they are allowing ISIL to progress and grew and continue their atrocities. But who cares about the atrocities when money is flowing in from the proceeds of war. A few are dying but the economy is growing, from the blood of some.

Now let’s analysed the situation in Syria. Syria under Bashar was quiet and peaceful (just like Iraq was under Sadam). In the Middle East there is no democracy. This notion has a different interpretation, there is “limited” democracy, everything is allowed except talking against the regime. If one is quite, everything is all right, but if you say something against the regime you simply disappear. This is the way it worked in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Iraq and what followed after the west “tried” to impose democracy? Chaos.  Countries like Saudi Arabia, UEA, Qatar, are ruled by dictators, where human rights are inexistent, where women have no rights but these countries are peaceful and prosperous. The trouble in Syria started when the Arab spring also touched the country. The revolutionaries wanted to overthrow Bashar as he belongs to a minority group which is ruling over the Sunni majority. Bashar responded with weapons of mass destruction killing thousands of Syrians. The west condemned the atrocity and gave logistical support to the rebels. This is how the civil war started and is continuing. Meanwhile ISIL went into Syria as they saw the opportunity to conquer territories amid the chaos. This is how the war in Syria became three-legged. Each one was fighting each other. Bashar resists and continues to resist the rebels and ISIL with the help of Russia and Iran.

Again when asked what are their policies towards Syria, where the war is causing millions of refugees to flee to everywhere, the answer from the west is blurred and ambiguous: “We prefer a political solution, we are waiting for Bashar to step down”. Even the most stupid person knows that dictators do not relinquish power easily, they have to be forced out. So with the help of Russia and Iran, Bashar will never step down on his own accord because he also knows that the west will not invade Syria.

However there is need to explore the following questions:
If ISIL is making over 1 milion a day who is buying this oil? It cannot be some simple smuggler, it need to be a state or a multinational. The Russian has suddenly found out that it is Turkey who is buying the oil and with the money they buy weapons for ISIL. Turkey for its part is saying that it is Syria who is buying the oil of ISIL, the same Syria that Russia is supporting.
How are all these oil leaving the Middle East, to other parts of the world? What are the transport companies, as only multinationals which have big petrol boats to transport such big quantities of oil?  How comes we do not know how many tankers are around and where they are heading to ? How are money being exchanged and moved around, only banks can do that. Which banks?Who owns the companies refining these oils, as ISIL only produce selling  crude oil and they do not have refineries.

The only solution to stop this is to have troops on the ground. This question is being deliberately avoided in all the talks, not even how many soldiers on the ground are required, why? The truth is that ISIL has over 300,000 militants and the allies will need more than that on the ground. To defeat ISIL means t killing over 300,000 people plus the casualties on the allies’ side say around 100,000 westerners. Which country is prepared to sacrifice its soldiers? Sadly its seems t that there is a way out, either the situation stays the same or else there will be a massive war coming a third world war.

Meanwhile nothin will change, the war will keep going and weapons will continue to be sold to Bashar, to the rebels and most importantly to ISIL.

Up to you to draw your own conclusion.

GDL.

A proposal for electoral reforms in Rodrigues

Electoral reforms in Rodrigues
by GDL

Many, mainly for the OPR side, were shocked when the Electoral Commission proclaimed the final results of the 2013 Rodrigues Regional Elections. The OPR won the first round of the elections by electing eight candidates at the First Past the Post and the MR had four elected candidates; the margin is 8-4 = 4 but after the proportional votes were added on, the majority of the OPR was reduced to one. This cause an outcry from the majority party but the results were formal and in line with the RRA Act 2002. Serge Clair was furious as well as his team where as the FPR rejoiced that they managed to get two of the candidates in the RR Assembly through the proportional system and none through the FPP, The MR also made gains under the proportional representation and became the main opposition party. Protests from the OPR failed as the Electoral Commissioner had acted according to the law.
Following the results the OPR was asked to form the RRA government with a reduced majority of one. Against all odds the OPR held on but always with the fear that if one of his members could defect they could lose government. The fear was also that one from the majority be bought out or offered money or an important position and consequently OPR would lose power. Luckily the members of the OPR are very discipline, no one crossed the floor.
However, at his last visit, the Prime Minister of Mauritius, SAJ, raised the question and expressed his disagreement with the proportional system, supporting Serge Clair. He even promised that he will amend the RRA Act through parliament. This was music to the ears of Serge Clair but not to the taste of Paul Berenger and still less for the FPR. This statement of PM prompted a debate around the question of PR. Nicholas Vonmally, leader of the MR agreed that it is time to review the system and Johnson Roussety vehemently opposed any change as he knows quite well that his party has no chance of electing candidates under the FPP.
Having heard all the comments and proposals I dare to submit own:
The RRA should be composed of 15 members.
1. I agree the the FPP system has its weaknesses when a candidate ca be elected with less than 50% but that Westminster system has worked in many democracies and always gave a clear result and majority.
2. The full proportional system, like in Israel, has its merits but can be very complicated.
3. The two party preference of Australia is also complicated as it is a combination of FPP and the two round system at one vote.
3. The two rounds system like France works to give a candidate a majority of 50%.

Rodrigues under the RRA Act 2002 has a combination of FFP and proportional system which gave the results we saw and consequences explained above.
So what electoral system for Rodrigues ?
I propose 12 elected from FPP and 3 from a reserved party list = 15.
1. It is very dangerous to divide Rodrigues into six wards or more as a small ward can be  subject to corruption and pork barrelling. Votes can be bought and this is very bad for democracy.
2. If only the FFP is applied in the six wards it can be 6-6 and who won ? This is where the legislators added the PR to give advantage to the party who had the most votes. But there is no need  for an additional party vote.  The party with the most overall votes received should be declared winner,  no matter which ward the candidates come from.
3. So I suggest that Rodrigues be divided in three larger ward with four elected candidates in each ward. 3 is an odd number the probability of equality is minimised.
One party can win between 1 and 12 same for the other parties.
4. Yes there is the possibility of 6 candidates being elected from each two parties or in a thee legged  4+2 against 6.
5. Again the electoral Commissioner will allocated the 3 candidates to the party which has the most votes. So 6 becomes 9 v/s 6 giving a clear majority to the winning party on FPP.

My second option is to have a full proportional vote like in Israel, This is good for a small country like Rodrigues. Each party has a list of 15 candidates and the party which wins the majority wins but can lose if he opposition  parties make a post electoral coalition. But the majority party can govern with the support of smaller parties who had won at least 10%  of the votes.

I am submitting this to Dr Rama Sithanen to see what he thinks.

GDL

The International Creole day : The 28th Of October

The International Creole day
by GDL

Today 28th October is the International Creole day as proclaimed by the United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organisation. It is the highest form of a recognition of our Creole culture. Since that proclamation the world now knows that we exist as a people with a specific cultural identity. This recognition of our culture and language by UNESCO did not arrive by pure chance or hazard, it is the fruit of a long battle by creole academics, militants and politicians. The process   started many years ago by academics of the Caribbean like Aime Cesaire, Edouard Glissant and Gilbert Gratiant and later taken over by Raphael Confiant, Jean Bernabe, Patrick Chamoiseau, Felix Lambert Prudent, Hector Poulet, Dany Laferiere, Rodolf Etienne. Creole academics like Gilbert Martin,Terrel Delphin, and The Creole Heritage Centre of Louisiana have also militate for their recognition as Creoles of the USA.
In the Indian Ocean,  the Republic of the Seychelles took the lead when President Albert Rene renamed the Seychelles "The Creole Republic of the Seychelles". The right hand person who organised the meetings of the representatives of the Creole world was Mrs D'Offay/ de St Jorre. She should be remembered as the Ambassador of the Creole world towards International Agencies like  Agence de Cooperation Culturel et Technique and the UNESCO.
Since 1982 there has been regular meetings in the Seychelles of academics, creolists, linguists, militants, artists, authors, cineastres, etc...and the organisation of an International Creole Festival with artists for the Creole world. These meeting and cultural activities  made echo around the world through intense media coverage. Gradually people of the creole world were getting to know more of each other, what they share in common and expressed the desire to move forward as a people who share the same culture. With such a momentum, books and literature from the creole world proliferated and received more coverage as more and more meetings of the Creole people were organised in different parts of the Creole countries. We also saw the emergence of  creole diasporas in countries like USA, Canada, France and Australia.
In La Reunion people like Alain Armand, Axel Gauvin,Mgr Gilbert Aubry and Jacqueline Fareyrole were talking more and more about the creole culture and its importance in the island.
In Rodrigies the pioneers who nurtured the creole culture were Georgy Lamvohee, Noel Allas and  Antoinette Prudence doing much to value the Rodriguan Creole culture. Serge Clair should also be credited for organising International Creole Festivals where the Rodriguan creoles started to know more about their counterparts in the Indian Ocean and elsewhere.

In Mauritius the combat was at the beginning more  focussed  on the recognition of the Creole language led by people like Dev Virasawmy and Vinesh Homooksing, Arnaud Corporan. But the Creole culture as such was more pushed forward by  Jean Maurice Labour, Jimmy Harmon, Jocelyn Gregoire. Minister Xaxier Luc Duval, should be praised by taking the lead to organise a yearly Festival International Creole in Mauritius while the Seychelles and Rodrigues have been doing if for years.

The Creole Diasporas, composed mainly of Haitians have also been very vocal by organising a yearly Creole month in Montreal with the backing of the Quebec Government. Many academics have also emerged from Haiti.

Today Creole people are found in many parts of the world, in the islands of the Indian Ocean and the Caribbean as well as in Europe, USA, Latin America, Cuba, Brazil, Canada, Australia.  They are proud to have brought a new culture and civilisation to the world and thus enriching the planet with a their food, their architecture, their language, their way of life, their music and dances. The Creole people have a history; from a culture which was born during the colonisation era, a culture born on the plantations, a culture born in sufferings but which has developed into a new, dynamic, rich  and modern one which keeps on rolling.
We are creoles and proud to be.

Australian Politics : We have a new Prime Minister

How Malcolm turned the bull around
by GDL

At the last elections the people of Australia chose to throw the Labor Party out of power and by default Tony Abbott became Prime Minister of Australia. Although having been a very good opposition leader, not many people liked Tony Abbott, some even hated him but voted for the Liberal party at the last general elections because they were fed up with Rudd, Gillard and...Bill Shorten. Tony Abbott was disliked as he was arrogant, a conservative and very right winger. Some would even say that ideologically he is on the far right and no different to Pauline Hanson. If difference there is ,Tony is more smart. Presenting the 2014 budget measures Joe Hockey became the most hatred politician in the land for his attacks on the working class, the students, the pensioners, families, the unemployed, the working class while favouring the big end of town. As Tony Abbott fully supported his Treasurer, he also shared the hatred from the Australian people and the media did not spare him neither. In fact Tony Abbott, who has never been popular, was worse as a PM. He was not even popular within his own party The Liberals!!!. While he survived a first revolt some months back, some weeks ago his party got rid of him and replaced him by Malcolm Turnbull. The party did the right thing as the government under Tony Abbott was very unpopular and was sure, according to the polls, of losing  at next year's general elections.
Malcolm Turnbull is a very rich man who worked hard in life to build his wealth. He was deposed as leader of the Liberals by Tony Abbott and deposing Tony Abbot as Prime Minister and leader of the Liberals was  a sweet revenge. However, Malcolm Turnbull has never been arrogant and has always been close to the people and sympathetic to the cause of  the working class and the middle class. Despite being a capitalist, Malcolm through his simplicity, has always talked sense. He is even popular among the Labor voters so much that many would wish he was a member of their party and would have wanted him as leader of the Labor Party. As he  always been  close to the people, a republican and a non-conservative, the right wingers of the Liberals do not like him and call him a man of the left. Among these ultra conservatives are Andrew Bolt, Ray Adley, Alan Jones, R Dean, Cory Berbardy who are admirers of Tony Abbott and now doing everything to undermine the Prime Ministership of Malcolm Turnbull. Some are even thinking of establishing a Conservative Party to protect the "values" of the conservatives which are extreme rights values to my analysis.
Since the change of  Prime Minister, the people of Australia from all walks of live are seeing a change of style of leadership, a new and simple PM, a man of the people at the head of government. Even those who are hard core labor voters are now showing sympathy for Malcolm and much prefer him to their actual leader Bill Shorten. The rating of Malcolm as preferred Prime Minister is as high as 68% which is quite significant. Malcolm and his new look cabinet of Ministers, which excludes Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey (of course), as well as some old farts, is a new start and give new hope to the people of Australia. More women are now in Cabinet which is a positive recognising the merit of  women like Kelly O'Dwyer and Marise Pierce. Julie Bishop is no more alone  as before in the boy's club of  Mikey Mouse and Donald Duck. Already Malcolm is communicating better to the people and his minsters are also adopting a new style far from being arrogant. Even Christopher Pierce is mo more riding on his high horses as he used to do. Malcolm Turnbull is gradually bringing the government from a right wing position to the middle and governing for the mainstream, more of a social democracy ideology. How much will be be successful remains to be seen while facing resistance from conservatives of the Liberal Party.
Looking at the polls, it is clear that the change of PM has put the Labor party from a winning position to  a very difficult situation. The 2014 budget of Tony Abbott has turned many voters away from the Liberal party and the government but today many are confused because we have a very popular PM coming from a party which normally do not like the middle and working class, a party which favours their rich friends and espousing the right wing ideology. The confusion is also in the fact that Bill Shorten is not popular with the Australian people and neither in his own party.
The question for the Australian voters is whether they will chose between Malcolm Turnbull or Bill Shorten or they will  vote for the party which will be more sympathetic to their cause with better and more progressive policies ?

Australian Politics

Bronwyn now gone, what next ?
By GDL.

After having been under pressure and in damage control for weeks, the Liberals finally gave way and get Bronwyn to vacate the seat of speaker. The departure (or sacking) of that old fart, Bronwyn, saved Tony Abbott and his party from disaster. It was a such relief for Tony Abbott and his government.
But it was also a relief for the parliamentarians of the Labor Party because, Bronwyn has been  so bias and partisan to the extent of throwing them out of the chamber for standing up to her. The old woman, Bronwyn, threw members of the Labor Party out of parliament  400 times. She also never listened to their griefs and disregarded their points of order. She was not worthy of the title of Speaker who, once in the chair, should be above party lines.To add insult to injury she was lavishly spending taxpayers' money on her extravagant travels and enjoyments. It is now rumoured that she will not event contest the next elections !!
Now there is a new speaker Tony Smith, who made a sober speech on his first day, and there are promising signs that he would be better speaker. The eyes and ears are now turning to the government and the opposition and their long awaited policies for the future of Australia. What can we expect ?
The coalition government seems to have exhausted their ammunitions and cannot come back again with their policies/slogans of the past elections of turning back the boats and repealing the carbon tax. Neither can they come back talking about budget repairs and deficit as they have got a bad situation worse (to use the words of Donal Duck). The deficit is now bigger than when they took office, iron ore price slumping, unemployment on the rise, growth is lower than what they forecast but they are still spending and ignoring that there is a revenue problem.They are burning what they adored. They do not want to talk about increasing the GST and now talking about reducing income tax !!! Actually, as Paul Kelly said, no one is listening to the broken records of Joe Hockey; and the finance minister, Mathias Corman, is struggling to explain the economics whenever he faces the media. On what platforms will the coalition go to the next elections is any body's guest.  
What about the Labor party of Mr Bill Shorten ? First Bill is short of being a fiscal conservative. His economic credentials leaves much to be desired. He is still not telling us whether he intends to repair the budget and raise revenue. Instead he is talking about spending more on Education, Health and Social Services. For the last elections Australians kicked Labor  in the arse for their idiosyncrasies,  inconsistencies, shortcomings and inner bickerings,  which gave us, by default, a coalition government and Tony Abbott as PM.                                                                                                What will happen next year, which party to vote for in its own right ? The Liberals will not have a Labor government to blame and will have to campaign on their success and what they have done well while in government. But what are these positives ? What will be their new policies and will people believe in the new promises since they broke all their promises while in office ? Will Joe Hockey still be around to smoke his cigar after presenting a f.... budget ? Will Scott Morrisson be in the forefront during the campaign and presented as the next treasurer of even the future PM ? Will that be enough to save the government ?
On the Labor's side, will people forget the killing years of Rudd and Gillard and how they turned voters away from the party ? Will people forgive them for their alliance with the Greens which gave us the infamous carbon tax ? Will the Labor Party be presenting a new and clean Labor ?  Is Bill Shorten not too short of convincing arguments and policies to obtain the trust of the voters ? Can Labor win back its traditional voters i.e the bulk of the working class, unemployed, migrants, students, pensioners, battlers, and the middle class who have been victims of the coalition government ? Can Bill Shorten win the argument of climate change and the introduction of an ETS ? Will they attract Green voters with their promise of "le marriage pour tous" ? Can they get back those who were against boats arrivals with their "me too" policy ?
These are questions that will face the voters next year but for the time being the answers, my friend, are blowing in the wind.
GDL.

How Bronwyn Bishop derailed Tony Abbott's plan

How Bronwyn Bishop derailed Tony Abbott's plan,
by GDL.

As written some weeks back, the government second budget had a smelt of elections in the air. After the "sweet" budget of the Liberal government, all polls showed that the budget was well received by the voters. It was a budget that was devoid of any philosophy and did not line up a plan for the for the middle or long term future of Australia. It is the same people who, in their first year, said that Australia needs dractic reforms to secure our future. The reforms proposed in the first budget were abandoned as they were so unpopular. But as Paul Kelly put it,on Richo and Jones last Tuesday, it was simply the case that they did not have the right people to sell the reforms. Paul Kelly went further in saying that Hawke and Keating were formidable, Howard and Costello were good, but since then t we have had a bunch of amateurs who have no credible social and economic plans for the country.
After the second budget, the ratings of the government and  Tony Abbott went up and the Liberals felt confident that they were on track to win the next general elections. While the government was enjoying the honey mood with the voters, came the documentary" the Killing Years" which highlighted the shortcomings and bitter internal quarrels within the last Labor government between the camps of Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard. The misfortunes of Labor was compounded by  Bill Shorten being in all sort of trouble with his dealings while he was the head of the construction union. He later appeared before the Commission of  Enquiry into the unions and came out badly scratched.
Tony Abbott and the Liberals were on the moon so much so that it was rumoured that there would be a snap elections before parliament resumes. No journalist or political commentator was surprised about this "rumour" as it was probably a good strategical tactic from Tony Abbott at a time when the Labor party was on the ground.
But surprise surprise a week is a long time in politics when suddenly came the news of Bronwyn Bishop helicopter trip from Melbourne to Geelong, paid by taxpayers to attend...a liberal party fund raising !! This news spread like a veld fire taken up by all the media across the country. This was portrayed as a big scandal when the battlers are paying their fair share of tax wasted by Bronwyn Bishop who could easily have used her official car for this short trip. The extravaganza of Bronwyn Bishop also surfaced when she spent some $11,000 for a trip in Europe traveling  in Limousine and drinking the most expensive champagne, all this paid by Australian taxpayers.                           Suddenly the table turned on the government and the Prime Minister Tony Abbott was under immense pressure to sack the speaker for her lavish spending at the expense of taxpayers' money. Tony Abbott resisted to the call for the sacking  the speaker. Meanwhile social media went frenzy against the government and towards a speaker who has shown so much bias and partiality in parliament. Even the pro-government right wing media could not find excuse for Bronwyn's scandalous spending. No need to be a Labor supporter to notice during  parliament questions and debate live, how obvious Browyn Bishop leans so much on the side of the government and threw out  Labor party members for 400 times.
Bill Shorten and the Labor party could not believe their luck when Bronwyn scandals broke out, and so they kept hammering Tony Abbott to sack Browyn Bishop. The latter was apparently forced by the PM to apologize and pay back the money with the penalty imposed. The misfortunes of the lady speaker were not going to go away as other lavish spending were uncovered to attend a friend's (sophie Mirabella) wedding  in Albury,  paid by taxpayers. Once more no excuse could be found again to save Bronwyn  and counter the attack of the opposition and the medias. Noone in the government ranks could say that Browyn was right but rather distanced themselves from her. Tony Abbott for his part  put Bronwyn on probation!!! But up to today, at  the time of writing,  the media are still talking about Browyn's scandals and it does not seem to go away so soon. There is even a popular petition going around for her resignation. Last night on ABC lateline, the maverick Clive Palmer also asked for the resignation of Browyn Bishop and added that if Tony Abbott does not act he will face the electors with this scandal in the next elections.
So this is how Browyn Bishop derailed the plans of Tony Abbott and the Liberals to go to an early elections which they were sure of winning. Adding insult to injury, last week Bill Shorten came out of the Labor party stronger than before with the policies of turning back the boats, the ETS and  a marriage equality again putting undue pressure on Tony Abbott and his weakened government.

GDL

In my next blog I will analyse Bill Shorten and the Labor party's weaknesses.

The reforms Australia needs (first part)

The reforms Australia really needs, by GDL

Those who have read The Patriots by Paul Kelly would agree that the reforms which occurred under the Hawke/Keating government were very brave, intelligent and have been a landmark in Australian politics. Paul Kelly, one of the most respected journalist in Australia, who usually makes informed and objective analysis of the policies and politics in Australia, praised these reforms in his book. Paul Kelly is now an editor at large and you can see him on Australian agenda with Peter van Olsen on Sundays on Sky News at 8.30 a.m.
For those who follow politics closely in Australia, I do not need to elaborate on these reforms, among which were: deregulation of the banking system, floating the Australia dollar, introduction of compulsory superannuation, Medicare, privatisation, etc...These reforms were not necessarily popular, but Bob and Paul had the guts to implement them as they believe they were good for the country and its future. Even the Liberals today praise these reforms as it was on these reforms that the Howard/Costello government built on to bring the country even further into the prosperous years.
Howard and Costello did not make changes to these reforms but, as we were then into a boom, they became very generous and distributed the surplus to the people by way of big tax cuts, baby bonus, generous superannuation tax concessions, easy student visas, increase migration intake and more refugees  were allowed in the country as business was also booming. It is true that when the Howard and the coalition left government the coffins were full, with a budget surplus of some 50 billions  and an infrastructure fund with billions. It is this very reserve that Kevin Rudd depleted, having no other choice (according to him!) as Australia faced the Global Financial Crisis, under what was called the Emergency policy or the Stimulus package. Money was thrown around by Rudd in forms of cheques to taxpayers,( even to those who were dead and have gone back to their countries); the school building revolution was more of an abuse by contracters who inflated the cost beyond imagination and the Insulation program (the pink bat) where amateurs, unskilled workers and indian students were involved, which later turned out to be a catastrophe causing death of 4 youngsters.
Julia Gillard, who knived Kevin Rudd and took over the country with a minority government, brought in some brave reforms like Gonski Education Review  and the Diability Program but without showing the money. It must be admitted that they were also long awaited reforms but the implementaion was not well costed not well planned. At date Gonski is till pending wheras the Disability program is being implemented piece meal.
Tony Abbott and Big Joe in their first budget went franzy about some drastic reforms under "the budget emergency policy" and because Australians could no longer live beyound their means( Joe dixit). The reforms proposed by Tony and Joe were in areas of health, (copayment) social security (cuts to pensions), childcare,  deregulation of university fees, pushing the age of retirement further, etc... The Liberals thinking that they were voted in with an overwhelming majority were expecting that these reforms would be welcomed by the polulation in the spirit of national interest and for the good of future genrations. Joe, the treasurer, argued much along these  lines: "These are the reforms the country need otherwise we would be bankrupt as Greece."

The days passed when a strong opposition built up against these proposed changes; first from the press, then from the labor opposition then for the pensioners, the university students, the working class, the sick, the mums and dads, and all those who these measures affected. On the other hand, gererosity was shown to the big end of town, to the rich women through the overgenerous maternity leave, cuts to company tax, abolition of carbon tax to big polluters.  Even if some legislations did pass through the lower house, most were blocked by a senate where the coalition do not have a majority. The backlash went crescedo and the pressure was mounting on the elected members of the coalition where some were even receiving hostile reception in the constituancies. Joe Hockey was pictured as arrogant and cruel while Tony Abbott faced the strongest opposition for his backbenchers to the point of coming close to loosing his job of leader and PM.
So in their second budget, the goverment abandonned most of their reform policies and opted for the easy way out i.e to give the people what they want to hear. Scott Morrison was instrumental in preparing public opinion on what was to be a popular budget. This 180 degrees turn around and the abandonment the proposed reforms were seen by many, among whom the respected Paul Kelly, as saying goodbye to future reforms.
 Many other credible reforms have been proposed outside the government ranks, from Ken Henry, from the productivity commission, from the Association of Super funds, from Macos, from the Business Council but all these look to be dead burried and cremated in the name of political gains. The last budget had a smell of elections in the air. In fact it is now rumoured that there could be a double disollution before parliament resumes.

Now that the reader has the background, I will enlist my proposed reforms in the next blog.Drastic reforms are also needed in Immigration, Tax, and many other areas for the good of Australia; one which I am realy passionate about is Agricultural reforms where I think the white paper has not addressed and how Australia can be the food bowl of Asia.
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See you soon.
GDL.

Australian politics : un budget electoralist

A  budget to grab votes
by GDL

The most obvious reactions from all corners after the presentation of this years' budget was, what a turn around !!! Indeed that reaction is legitimate in the way it contrasts with the last one presented by the fat man with the cigar as in now commonly known the Treasurer, Joe Hockey.  Last year it was all about budget emergency, the deficit, that we cannot continue to live beyond our means, cut spending, it is all  Labors' bad legacy, GP co-payment as medicare is under pressure, the welfare budget too was a big problem, so indexing the pensions, six months waiting period for new starters, deregulating university fees making student paying more for their degrees, increasing the HECs debt interest rate, while introducing generous paid parental leave for the rich women of the North shore and Tourack, putting pressure on families, the sick and targeting mostly those at the bottom of the social ladder as well as low and middle income families. The budget then was the true face of the Liberals who favours more the rich than the poor, which hates the welfare beneficiaries and university students as they are seen to be leftists or labour's heartland voters. They needed to be punished by bearing the biggest burden of economic reform and budget repairs. No  doubt that last year's unfair budget was criticised by most journalists, analysts and commentators in the media so much so that the Libs were in turmoil and Tony Abbott came close of loosing the prime ministership. It was also a nightmare for the Treasurer who faced the wraft of the voters and virtually went into hiding. His position was, according to many, becoming untenable. He came close from being replaced by the rising star and super minister Scott Morrison.
This year's budget is more of a political document to attract voters and make them forget the bitter pill that was administered to the them last year. It was not a dull budget as we thought, but a budget which repaired the relationship between the voters and the government. It was a giveaway budget to attract voters by reducing tax for small business with other goodies, and generous to low and middle income families through child care benefits. The indexation of pensions was dropped instead pensioners with low assets will receive more and cut to high asset-owned pensioners and part pensioners. No change to superannuation meaning those with millions in their portfolio will continue to benefit from generous tax concessions. The GP co-payment dropped as well as the parental leave signature policy. It could also be termed a no tax budget.
The three measures above were the highlights and strong points of the Government's budget on which most  voters focussed. The reaction did  not take long and this week's poll put the government in a winning position and surprise, surprise, Tony Abbott is now the preferred Prime Minister!!!!. What a change of fortune for Donald Duck !!!! The budget sparked  a smell of early elections through its goodies and now with the polls showing the government in front will there be an early election, which should also trigger a double dissolution if the senate continues to block supply? The answer is in the wind of change although the PM is diplomatically avoiding this possibility. But as everybody knows politicians cannot be trusted on their words.
The Labor opposition was taken aback with such a budget coming from the Liberals, and they could not find flaws and grounds to criticise apart  form the generosity to high income families who will still get 50%  of child care benefits and defending the double dippers on maternity leave payment. The critical path to surplus was also contested as being too optimistic on growth.Bill Shorten's  reply speech was also very political with a touch of enhanced philosophy and looking for the future of Australia through more emphasis  on technology and science. It was also a brillant speech but which did not show where will the money be coming from to pay for these policies. He stumbbled so many times on this issue on ABC and at other interviews.

So with the turnaround it seems that we are now on the path of economic recovery far from a budget emergency. The deficit is under control; we are well into the path of surplus, money will just flows in, there is no revenue problem, government can continue to spend (on the increase as a percentage of GDP). There is no more need for reforms of taxation or superannuation, medicare is no longer under pressure nor is the welfare budget. Let's ignore the inter-generation report.  According to the fat man we can now confidently go out and borrow and spend to stimulate the economy. ( which is sluggish according to the reserve bank; cash rate is at only 2% no need to be an economist to understand that our economy is in dire strait). The job market will be plentiful, everybody will soon have a job  through the small business package. Vire mam, riez mam.
Well well all is now beautiful under the Australian sun, we are all happy and our future and those of future generations are secure. Better days are ahead of us according to Joe. So let's then relax , sleep tight and wait for the elections.
GDL

My next Blog will be on the social and economic reforms that Australia really needs.

Mauritian politics: les scandales de Navin Ramgoolam

Mauritian Politics:
Navin Ramgoolam:  l'homme aux millions....et scandales.

On the 10th December 2014 general elections the people f Mauritius clearly and loudly voted against Navin Ramgoolam and Paul Berenger's alliance. It was clear that they did not want continuity of Navin Ramgoolam's reign over Mauritius with or without the connivance of PRB. The reason was that they were sick of the outright corruptions, cover up. copinage, dictatorship, cronyism, immorality prevailing under the Labour Party. Navin Ramggolam was governing Mauritius as his own property doing whatever he wanted regardless of the legality or immorality of his actions.
People of  Mauritius knew a lot of his scandals and cover up but they were more discussed in the house rather than in the streets for fear of reprisals under a disguised dictatorship. Mauritians do not have a culture of going down in the streets as we saw for the "printemps arabe" or like manifestaions  in Thailand, Korea, USA or Australia. They are patient, they believe in democracy and exercise their civic rights and the votes when the time comes.
So at the last general elections they voted overwhelmingly to throw out Navin Ramgoolam and his corrupt government. Since the change the facts are proving that the people of Mauritius made the right choice. Nearly everyday the Mauritian press uncovers a new scandal and some of magnitude beyond belief. How comes that Navin Ramgoolam could have some Rs220 millions rupees in his house? Where does this money come from and why is it there? Then comes his association with Mr Dawood Rawat and how he apparently helped the latter to build an empire in a not honest way. Navin Ramgoolam is also allegedly accused of helping Rawat to create a ponzi scheme to rob Mauritians of their insurance money. Navin is now facing many accusations of money laundering, abuse of power, and forgery, etc...the latest is his involvement in the purchase of air planes and commissions received.
This ex-prime minister, according to what the people now know about him, and confirmed, is a shame for Mauritius.. He was using his power and authority to do doggy business with his friends and his mistress and pumped in as much as he could from the state coffins. He was endlessly travelling around the world at the expense of poor taxpayers and  offered himself the best hotels and restaurants and claimed millions in per diem.
Today, Navin Ramgoolam is facing justice and is being called by the police nearly every day for a new criminal case. He has already spend few nights in custody but is now out on bail. If proved guilty on all the charges against him (there are so many) it is said that he could be  spending some ten years in jail.
But he has already been judged by the people and the press and probably in the minds of  many Mauritian he has joined the ranks of the many African, Arabs and Asian corrupt dictators. This is how history will remember him.

To Jean Millais: Your commenst are posted below.
If you can't see it please contact me.
Thanks for your different views.

Australian Politics, The Libs are back in business

The Libs are back in business
by GDL

When I wrote my last blog " The libs in turmoil" things were really getting bad for the Prime Minister, Tony Abbott, so much that he was pleading to the party not to make a bad situation worse. By his own admission he recognised that the situation was " bad".
The motion for a spill of leadership was defeated but the results showed that there was actually a revolt from the Libs backbenchers. To ease the tension, Tony Abbott asked his party members to give him more time and promised that he will do better, consult more and that there will be no more "captain's call."
Since then water has gone under the bridge and Tony Abbott has changed his style and modified his front bench. He has also dumped the unpopular and unfair measures announced in his first budget, among which the medical co-payment, the paid parental leave to the rich  women, the pension indexation. Since the revolt, things have smoothed out within the party and the government seems to be governing instead of inside fighting. The fortunes of the government and that of Tony Abbott look to be in better shape according to the polls. Tony Abbott is now as popular (or unpopular) as Bill Shorten. The government seems to have found a new spokesperson, Scott Morrisson, the Human Services minister, who besides being their best communicator, is now called Mr Everywhere( name given by Lisa of Channel 9). Graham Richardson on his program also describes Scott Morrisson as the most effective minister of the government. Scott Morrisson, whether you like him or not, has stopped the boats, one of the biggest promise of Tony Abbott while in opposition. Every decent Australian would agree that Scott Morrisson has managed to  stop this plague of "illegals" arriving en masse on our shores. No more boat arrivals, no more illegals, no more drowning at sea.
On the basis of his success as Immigration Minister, Scott Morrisson was promoted to Human Services to bring reform to this Ministry which has the lion's share of the budget. Australians are getting older and more and more people are on welfare and pensions. In the last budget the government targeted the sick, the students, the pensioners and all those on welfare for the savings. This caused an uproar and a backlash so much that Joe Hocket went in hiding...leaving it to Scott Morrisson to communicate to the people of Australia on future budget measures eg. reform of pension and childcare.
The last budget was a nightmare for the Abbott government as they were obsessed with returning back the budget to surplus, another of their big promise. In fact since they took office the situation has gone worse and the deficit is bigger. It is now obvious that neither in this term of office, nor in the next decade will any government be able to have a surplus budget. The government have given up on the surplus and will present a budget that will cause the least harm to families and the working class. As we are only  some 18 months till the next elections, it will be a dull budget, one which will not antagonise anyone with measures which will attract voters to their side. A budget to sweeten the mouth of the electorate.( faire la bouche doux comme on dit a Maurice).All these will be revealed tomorrow night (Tuesday 12 May 2015).
Conclusion, after the storm it is now the calm within the Liberal party and they are back in business.

Australian politics: The libs in turmoil

The Australian Federal Liberal Party in turmoil
by GDL


Some four weeks ago, some back benchers of the Federal Liberal Party mounted a spill against their leader and Prime Minister, Tony Abbott. According to some backbenchers, the spill was needed because Tony Abbott was making mistakes/gaffes after mistakes and the party was going down in the polls and the popularity of Tony Abbott was the lowest a Prime Minister of Australia ever recorded. According to the polls, if an election was held then, the Coalition government would be wiped out from office and many backbenchers would lose their seats. The call for a spill caused havoc within the party and mainly among ministers who would lose their positions if there were a reshuffle. The one most in danger was Joe Hockey, whose budget has caused voters' anger. The last budget presented by the Coalition government was according to most analysts and respected journalists, unfair as it targeted the working class and middle class while favouring the upper class and big business.
The spill failed but it was noted that one third of the caucus ( MPs) had no confidence in their leader, who they think, was not doing a good job. Tony Abbott who survived the spill motion asked for more time to prove himself as it was only half term of his mandate. He also promised that he would consult the party more before taking important decisions. "There will be no more the captain's call." he said.
Since that day, there has been unrest in the Liberal party and the performance of Tony Abbott is watched closely by the backbenchers mainly.
Going back, it was a reality that the Labor Party lost the 2012 elections, because of the instability in the party, rather that the coalition winning. It is also to be acknowledge that Tony Abbott was an effective opposition leader who crucified the Labor government and nailed their coffin each time he had an occasion. The slogans of the Coalition Government during the campaign also found resonance within the electorate: Stop the boats, repeal the Carbon tax, repeal the mining tax were what the people wanted. But  it looks like for Tony Abbott and his ministers, being in opposition is much easier than governing. While trying to fix the budget and redress the economy, they did a lot of harm to those most vulnerable: pensioners, families, unemployed, and university students. They also made big cuts to education and health and to the ABC and SBS. The liberals who promised to bring the budget to surplus faced the reality that it is easier said than done. After 18 months in government the budget situation is worse so much so that they cannot say when the budget will go in surplus let alone be balanced. All these factors have turned voters away from Tony and his party although they have stopped the boats, repealed the taxes.
The unrest nevertheless continues in the Liberal party because many MPs have already seen the danger looming. They think that it is a mammoth task for the government to be popular among voters again and that Tony Abbott is not the right candidate to lead them to the next elections and win. Apart from the backbenchers many political analyst like Paul Kelly, Peter Van Olsen, Miranda Devine, Janet Albreit, Eleonor Taylor, Karen Middleton, Richo, and others also espouse the opinion that Tony Abbott's days are numbered. The eyes are now turning to Malcolm Turnbull and Julie Bishop to step up but none of the two most popular candidates has declared his/her  intentions clearly yet. It could be that they are waiting for the right moment, closer to the elections and they do not want the change to be as  brutal as it was within the Labor party. They would prefer see Tony Abbott die on his own sword i.e. that he step down in a gallant way for the benefit of the party.
Interesting time ahead.
GDL

Mauritian Politics : The demise of Navin Ramgoolam

The demise of Navin Ramgoolam
by GDL






There is creole proverb which says "Penan ballon monter ki pas descendre".
                   
Unfortunately some like Navin Ramgoolam have always thought that once in power they will always be in power. Stephanie Anquetil, a firm admirer and follower of Navin Ramgoolam once told me that " Lambition de Navin est de battre le record de son pere et de REGNER sur l'ile Maurice."
 So this was the mindset of NR since he was made PM. Having got a good taste of power and the privileges attached to his position, he did not want to let go, let alone share these with anyone else. To be in power and stay in power, he has used others like the MMM, the PMSD, the MSM but more so he played on the emotions of the Hindus by always referring to his father SSR as the father of independent Mauritius. If his father has been a landmark of Mauritian politics, Navin never achieved the level. As mentioned above, he used others to be in power and once in power he made others work for him as he is well-known to be a lazy PM who took ages to make a decision. It is said that files keep piling on his desk, behind which he smoked his cigar.
Having been Prime Minister of Mauritius for 15 years, he has enjoyed to the fullest the many advantages by way of travelling,( the Business  class of Mk was like his private room) partying, cocktail, women, private parties, dinner caviar and champagne in the best hotels in Mauritius and abroad. He said that he has class and wears Rolex watch, drives Rolls Royce and Aston Martin. He was such a womaniser that he was called "le demon de minuit" as he visited the women (married or not, at night far from the public eyes.( At least that's what he thought !).
Navin was kicked out of power in 2000 following a Macarena party and other "scandals" but managed to come back in 2005 after running a vicious communal campaign against Paul Berenger.
When back as PM in 2005, he restarted  his "belle vie" again while making Rama Sithanen doing all the work. In 2010 he would have been kicked out of power if the MSM of the Jughnuth did not come to his rescue. Not listening to the warning of the electors in 2010, and blinded by his natural instinct of enjoying and making the most of his position, he continued more that before to the extent of now having an official  mistress to whom he gave undue favours at the expense of taxpayers money. The women consequently became very very powerful where all doors were opened to her. The airport of Mauritius was virtually her private property to the extent that she did not even pay the rent for all the shops she had there. She now owns a mansion in Floreal and apartments in Venise and Milan with the blessing of his master Navin. There had also many doggy transactions under Navin's reign where corruptions were at their best. He favoured other friends and ministers and made them millionaires. Navin must have been warned by some of his good friends, like Stephanie, that he was going a bit too far but he was so sure that he would get re-elected that he did not care less. When the elections were getting close the NIU reported  to him that " zafaire pas bon". So he had to find a new strategy. He managed to fish a shark (requin) Paul Berenger and the MMM, with a big bait ( post of PM) but that was like giving crumbs to the dogs; he would be President with full power for seven years. This is where he thought that he would break his father's record and continue to reign over Mauritius as Stephanie related.
Well, well, on 10 December 2014, the fortunes of Navin turned into nightmare. The people rejected him and his party totally and hence started his misfortunes. Meanwhile "la siren" smelling the rat had fled the country with a huge sum of money. The police says it could be around Rs800 million.
The police meanwhile was reopening the Roches Noires affair. There are many corroborative statements from witnesses that Navin Ramgoolam was at his bungalow on the night of the burglary. It is even reported  he hosted the "soiree mondaine" alongside his mistress Nandanee Soornack.
It is therefore obvious, on the basis of the eye witnesses that Navin had lied and misled parliament while replying to a PNQ of the leader of the opposition. Misleading parliament is indeed a serious offence but he did not care less and he was at the time above the law. He was untouchable and was allowed anything and everything under the Mauritians sun: Navin le tout puissant. But he was at the same time viewed by the people  as a dictator, a despot, an immoral person, un adulter.
His worries became worse when lately the police found millions and millions of bank notes at his Riverwalk residence. Navin was consequently questioned, arrested and brought before the courts. He is accused of perverting the course of justice and money laundering.
Whether he will be sentenced to prison or not remains to be seen as many do not have faith in the Mauritian justice system, rightly or wrongly. But the people of Mauritius have already judged and sentence him once on the 10th of December 2014 by kicking him out of government and not electing him in his seat. With the advent of he millions found at his place, he has again been tried by the media, and the people of Mauritius have completely written him off.  People now realised  how bad a PM he was and the extent of corruptions, cover up, copinage, nepotism, cronyism which occurred under his reign.                                                                                                                                 


There is an end to everything and this is the end of Navin Ramgoolam. The end of the lion's reign; he is now but a lion "empaille" as said SAJ lately.
Ballon Navin finn eclater au plasir de tout citoyen honetre.
GDL

Mauritian politics, a new wave

A new wave sweeping over Mauritius
by GDL




I last wrote my opinion piece one week before the general elections in Mauritius and was more concerned about the fate of Paul Raymond Berenger,( His last chance or his last mistake). I had a feeling at that  he was making his last mistake but was at the same time playing his "va tout". I sensed that PRB knew it was the last joker he could play. I also sensed that the Labour Party of Navin Ramgoolam was at its weakest point as it was unconceivable that people of Mauritius would vote Navin in power following the many scandals, nepotism, corruptions, cover up, Nadaneee Soornak's affair, Gooljaury Eben tower's magouille, Betamax, MTID, etc... everywhere you looked was smelling rotten. But this is the Mauritian Labour Party's culture and it has been so since SSR with the corrupt ministers like Badry and Daby, SKJ, the Amsterdam boys, ministre molleton, you name it.
In 2010 Navin Ramgoolam was already out but managed to hang on to power thanks to a last minute alliance with the MSM. In 2014 things were different.
The people of Mauritius are patient, they follow politics closely, they were eagerly waiting for the time to give Navin Ramgoolam the boot. The writings were already on the walls. Navin Ramggolam probably knew that his days were numbered, so he had to find a way to hang on to power by hook or by crook. He knew that he has been a very bad PM who has given his blessings to all the corruptions, nepotism and cronyism which occurred during his "reign". But he had the ambition of continuing to reign over Mauritius and enjoy all the power and privilege conferred to him as PM. So, he had to find someone who would help him to realise his ultimate dream of being a full power President of Mauritius. He then invited his good friend PRB to koz kozer and gave him  the biggest and most delicious bait: the post of PM which PRB has always ambitioned.
PRB should know that Navin was only using him as a "requin" to stay in power and avoid facing the justice system for all his wrongdoings, but he played the game.  The MMM bureau politique also saw that was a unique opportunity for PRB to be PM, even even if   a PM "marionette". Shocking decision/analysis from the MMM which has always been a "clean" party !!!
However all this dream of Navin and Paul turned into a nightmare on December 10 when they people of Mauritius showed them that they cannot be taken forgranted. Time for recrimination and time for clean up had arrived. So the people expressed themselves clearly and squarely but saying NO to the MMM/PRT alliance, NO to the second republic, NO to Navin as full-power President, NO to PRB as PM( marionette or not). The message was clear, we do not want Navin and Paul any more.






Since the installation of the new SAJ government, the people of Mauritius saw a new style, a new way of governing, a new hope for the country. But most of all the new government stuck to its promise during the campaign i.e. to clean up Mauritius and to put it on a new path. A new wind is now blowing from a new wave. This is what the people voted for and what they expect from "their" new government. The new government of SAJ began on a positive note to increase the old age pension and to fix the water problem and make sure that the expectations of the people are met. The political nominees and other super advisers were given their marching orders and investigations carried out on past wrongdoings. The scandals of allocating state land to the friends of Navin Ramgoolam were brought to light as well as the contract of Airways coffee among others came up to the delight of " Le pep".


What really happened at Roches Noires bungalow are now being uncovered and it becomes clear that Navin Ramgoolam was having a party at his bungalow with his mistress Nandanee Soornak and others. The intriguing part is whether that famous party and the breaking that night in the bungalow has is a direct link with the death of the poor man in custody! Was he deliberately "killed" because he surprised Navin in company of Nandanee all alone? Did he blackmailed Navin? Was there a fight between the two or  whether he threatened Navin with a knife and stole his rolex en passant?There is a version which stipulates that Navin was too scared that the man would  "talk"  of what he saw in the bedroom and from there the need to "silence" him. Was there suicide or was he killed by some " men" directed from above? This is the question.
The investigation is underway but it seems clear that somehow Navin will have to answer whether he was the mastermind behind the whole saga/plot. SAJ promisedduring the electoral campaign that "Si mo pa envoy Navin endan, mo change mon nom". Was he in possession for all the information then to be brave enough to give such an undertaking to the people ? We will soon find out.




Coming back to PRB, it was indeed his last mistake as I mentioned in my last blog. Not a tactical  mistake but a strategic and a fatal one which proved that he is just an amateur who could not read the mood of the electorate. Now  it is too late for him to recognise  that Navin was so unpopular; but the paradox is that he is the one who contributed to make Navin so unpopular. Bizzare isn't it? Who is the reasonable person who would ally with a very very unpopular person  ? The answer is :the stupid PRB. So rest in  peace PRB and Navin as you are gone for ever. Le pep na pli envi trouv zot ni zordi ni demain..