Australian politics: The libs in turmoil

The Australian Federal Liberal Party in turmoil
by GDL


Some four weeks ago, some back benchers of the Federal Liberal Party mounted a spill against their leader and Prime Minister, Tony Abbott. According to some backbenchers, the spill was needed because Tony Abbott was making mistakes/gaffes after mistakes and the party was going down in the polls and the popularity of Tony Abbott was the lowest a Prime Minister of Australia ever recorded. According to the polls, if an election was held then, the Coalition government would be wiped out from office and many backbenchers would lose their seats. The call for a spill caused havoc within the party and mainly among ministers who would lose their positions if there were a reshuffle. The one most in danger was Joe Hockey, whose budget has caused voters' anger. The last budget presented by the Coalition government was according to most analysts and respected journalists, unfair as it targeted the working class and middle class while favouring the upper class and big business.
The spill failed but it was noted that one third of the caucus ( MPs) had no confidence in their leader, who they think, was not doing a good job. Tony Abbott who survived the spill motion asked for more time to prove himself as it was only half term of his mandate. He also promised that he would consult the party more before taking important decisions. "There will be no more the captain's call." he said.
Since that day, there has been unrest in the Liberal party and the performance of Tony Abbott is watched closely by the backbenchers mainly.
Going back, it was a reality that the Labor Party lost the 2012 elections, because of the instability in the party, rather that the coalition winning. It is also to be acknowledge that Tony Abbott was an effective opposition leader who crucified the Labor government and nailed their coffin each time he had an occasion. The slogans of the Coalition Government during the campaign also found resonance within the electorate: Stop the boats, repeal the Carbon tax, repeal the mining tax were what the people wanted. But  it looks like for Tony Abbott and his ministers, being in opposition is much easier than governing. While trying to fix the budget and redress the economy, they did a lot of harm to those most vulnerable: pensioners, families, unemployed, and university students. They also made big cuts to education and health and to the ABC and SBS. The liberals who promised to bring the budget to surplus faced the reality that it is easier said than done. After 18 months in government the budget situation is worse so much so that they cannot say when the budget will go in surplus let alone be balanced. All these factors have turned voters away from Tony and his party although they have stopped the boats, repealed the taxes.
The unrest nevertheless continues in the Liberal party because many MPs have already seen the danger looming. They think that it is a mammoth task for the government to be popular among voters again and that Tony Abbott is not the right candidate to lead them to the next elections and win. Apart from the backbenchers many political analyst like Paul Kelly, Peter Van Olsen, Miranda Devine, Janet Albreit, Eleonor Taylor, Karen Middleton, Richo, and others also espouse the opinion that Tony Abbott's days are numbered. The eyes are now turning to Malcolm Turnbull and Julie Bishop to step up but none of the two most popular candidates has declared his/her  intentions clearly yet. It could be that they are waiting for the right moment, closer to the elections and they do not want the change to be as  brutal as it was within the Labor party. They would prefer see Tony Abbott die on his own sword i.e. that he step down in a gallant way for the benefit of the party.
Interesting time ahead.
GDL