Une victoire historique apres 40 ans.

La victoire de L’OPR dans le ward 2, Marechal/Riviere Coco revet d’un caractere special car ce parti n’avait, pendant 40 ans d’existance, pu faire une percee dans cette region. Je me souviens que pendant la campagne de 1976, nous pouvions a peine faire  des meetings a Riviere Coco et quand nous le faisions nous etions huees. Quand Sege disait “ vote 2 la bougie” des voix repondaient,          “ vote deux coqs”. Nous avions  que deux delegues venant de cette region, Benjamin Clair et Edwin Emilien qui nageaenit a contre courrant si ou peut dire. Le jour des elections de Juin 1976, mo ami Eddy Goodsir me preta sa motocyclette et je suis parti tres tot pour Rivire Coco pour installer des banderoles et affiches, et pour distribuer des cartes “comment voter” aux electeurs. Quand j’arrivais a Riviere Coco, je ne voyais que du blue…les agents du PMSD etaient deja a pied d’oeuvre. Je cherche nos deux amis de L’OPR et finalement Benjamin Clair s’ammene en me disant,                       “ “Lamvohee, penan rien a faire ici, repran ou bann zafaires aller” . J’avais presceque les larmes aux yeux et je repris le chemin vers la Ferme.                                                                                                 Arrivant a l’ecole du St Esprit, c’etait le meme scenario, que du bleu…mais nos amis Dartagnia Ithier, Aline Won Tong et autres mettaient quand meme une brave, malgre maigre, presence. Je suis reste avec eux quelques moments puis je suis parti vers l’ecole Ste famille a Lataniers. Arrivant labas j’ai eu un peu de courage car le blanc etait existait et nos agents etaient en pleine action. Ils me disaient “ zafaire pas trop mal ici” Il y avait quand meme une forte presence des blues. A l’ecole de Brule nous amis  travailaient d’arache pied montrant un peu d’optimisme.  J’ai passe le reste de la journee entre Lataniers et Brule encourgeant nos amis. Dans le nord a l’ecole de Port Mathurin et Baie aux Huites nous avions un avantage sur le PMSD et le blanc predominait.                                                       En 1976 nous etions battus par le PMSD 74% contre 36%.

Pour les elections de 1982 et 1983 la situation a Riviere Coco et la Ferme avait un peu change meme si nous n’avions pas la majorite. Par contre nous avions conquis le Centre, L’Est et le Nord.  Ce fut une repetition des forces en presence en 1987 meme si le PMSD avait abandonne le terrain replace par nos adversaires Rodriguais.

Pour les regionales de 2002, la situation n’avait pas change dasn le sud,  si bien que Serge Clair, leader de L’OPR, fut battu a la Ferme et Marechal/ Riviere Coco votait toujours contre l’OPR. La meme chose en 2006 et en 2012.  Mais que s’est-il passe en 2017 ?

 J’etais en vacances en Decembre 2016 a Rodrigues et j’allais souvent dans le Sud car j’aime bien ce paysage et je faisias des photos. Il m’arrivait de discuter politique avec des gens de la region et je sentais que l’hostilite vis a vis de L’OPR avait quelque peu change a mon grand etonnement. On m’expliquait que la region a toujours vote le MR et  malgre cela le gouvenement de L’OPR n’avait pas neglige la region et qu’il y a eu certains developpements dans les villages du sud. On me disait egalement qu’il y avait un phenomene qui profilait en la personne de Jean Noel Nemours. Il parait que Nemours avait ete deja chosit pour etre le candidat de L’OPR dans le ward 2 et qu’il a deja laboure le terrain depuis quelques temps. Il est un enfant de la region et il connait tout le monde dans cette partie de l’ile.

Trois semaines avant les elections regionals de 2017, j’assistais a un meeting du MR a Riviere Coco, j’etais (agreablement) surpris qu’il y avait tres peu de gens de la region a leur rassemblement. J’avais tout de suite compris que le vent avait change en faveur de L’OPR. En plus de l’enfant gate de l’endroit, L’OPR avait aligne une candidate canon en la personne de Roxana Collet qui vennait de terminer ses etudes de droit et faisait la fierte des habitants de cette partie de L’Ile. 

 

 

Le jour des elections je suis parti tres tot a Riviere Coco tout comme je l’avais fait 40 ans plus  tot. Cette fois ci ce fut tout le contraire, changement de decors, le blanc predominait et les amis de L’OPR abordaient tous un grand  sourire, la fete avait deja commence vers 11 heure a.m dans le camp des OPRs alors que vis a vis “la base” MR etait plutot mosade. J’etais tres emu en pensant a mon experience de 1976, comment les choses ont change et je n’ai pu m’empecher d’etre tres emotionel et me larmes coulaient a flot. Je mis le cap vers sur Marechal et ce fut la meme ambiance chez les OPR et a 2 heure de l’apres midi la base du MR etait en deuil alors que les amis dansaient le sega “ “Coule coule ti bato”. 

Les resultats le landemain donnaient a L’OPR une victoire historique dans le  ward 2 apres 40 ans.

GDL.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The demise of the Front Patriotique Rodriguais

The demise of the FPR by GDL

Le Front Patriotique Rodriguais

FPR en 2011 en haut, FPR en 2017   a cote.

Le Front Patriotique Rodriguias est ne en 2011 a la suite d’un conflit entre le Chef Commissaire Johnson Roussety et le leader de son parti d’alors, Nicholas Von Mally du Mouvement Rodriguais. Demis des ses fonctions  de Chef Commissaire, Johnson Roussety rejoint les rangs de l’opposition avec Allan Ladd Emilien qui etait commissaire de la sante. Tous deux ils formerent le FPR auquel s’est joint Lydie Roussety, Stephan Tolbize, feu Rigobert Francois entre autres. 

Il est assez  difficile de comprendre l’ideologie et la strategie du FPR qui prone a sa guise l’autodetermination de Rodrigues et brandit le specte de L’independence comme strategie de chantage vis a vis de Maurice. L’observateur politique a du mal a suivre la logique de ce parti qui des fois tente de faire des reflexions serieuses et d’autres fois deverse dans la decadence. La facon de gouverner l’ile de 2006 a 2011 par le leader du FPR en dit long sur le style, la forme et le fond de ce parti qui se voulait etre autrement des autres !!!  Pour beaucoup de Rodriguais le style du FPR ressemblait etrangement au PMSD de 1976. Certains diraient meme que Johnson reincarnait le feu Gaetan Duval.

Le FPR tint son premier rassemblement en  Fevrier 2011 a Pte Cotton aborrant la  couleur rouge et le symbole le solitaire. Le FPR participa aux elections regionales de 2012 et fut battu a plate couture ne recoltant qu’autour de  11 % des votes. Toutefois cela permit a Johnson Roussety et Allan Ladd Emilien d’entrer a l’Assemblee sous les arrangements de la porportionelle. Les confilts continuerent entre les freres ennemis et pour les elections nationales de 2014, le FR debaucha le fidele coulistier de Nicholas,  Christain Leopold. Une fois encore le FPR est battu et se rangea a la troisieme place derriere  le Mouvement Rodriguais de Vonmally. Entretemps le FPR, (avec les ruses de Johnson Roussety) avait egalement debauche Christain Agathe, Daniel Speville et Lordana Meunier du Mouvement Rodriguais esperant consolider le parti pour les prochaines elections regionales. Maheureusement pour Johnson Roussety a l’approche des elections regionales, il y eut des defections au sein du parti. Christian Agathe et Daniel Speville quitterent le parti, le premier pour L’OPR et le second pour se consacrer a son emploie d’instituteur.

A quelques semaines des elections regionales l’OPR tint un rassemblement de 6,000 personnes a Pte Cotton alors que le FPR ne reunit que quelques 55 personnes a son “grand” rassemblement a Cavern Provert. Sentant le terrain glissant sous ses peids et les sondages donnant autour de 5% au FPR, Johnson Roussety negocia une alliance avec son adversaire d’hier  Nicholas Von Mally.  D’apres les racontars il ya eu beaucoup de chantages et de pressions de part et d’autres au cours des negociations d’allaince. Johnson Roussety voulait une alliance concrete avec un partage de tickets et que son parti serait sur la liste proportionelle. En retour Nicholas Vonmally lui demandait de dissoudre son parti et lui offrit qu’un seul ticket au Numero 5. Au depart cela enragait  Johnson Roussety mais voyant que Nicholas ne cedait pas le terrain, il finit par accepter mais exigea qu’il soit le Deputy Chief Commissioner en cas de victoire. Dans la meme foulee comme le FPR n’avait pas presenter de candidats au First past the Post, la commission electorale rejetta la demande du FPR de presenter une liste  pour les proportionelles. Ce fut un coup dur pour Johnson Roussety. Comme  un malheur n’arrive jamais seul,  quelques jours avant les elections, les autres membres du FPR notamment Allan Ladd Emilen et Marie There Bault, se sentant trahis par Johnson Roussety,  abandonerent le navire politique de Johnson Roussety et fit campagne pour L’OPR.

 L’alliance MR et JR (parce qu’on ne peut pas dire le FPR) fut battue par L’OPR aux elections regionales de 2017 et Johnson Roussety mordit la poussiere face aux candidats de l’OPR, Richard Payendee et Rose de Lima Edourad. Apres sa lourde defaite, Johnson Roussety demissiona comme leader de son parti et mit le cap sur L’Australie. Il aurait dit qu’il reviendrait pour les prochaines regionales mais c’est peu probable. Il parait que la fidele Lordana Meunier tentera de garder le parti vivant. Mais bien voir le FPR a connu le meme sort que son symbole le Solitaire. 

Regional Elections in the Island of Rodrigues

Regional elections in Rodrigues
by GDL

The regional elections in Rodrigues were held on the 12 February 2017 and the sitting government of L'Organisation du Peuple de Rodrigues (OPR) won an overwhelming victory against the opposition party the Movement Rodriguais(MR).
The OPR is led by Serge Clair who came to politics in 1976 and founded the party. It was a very humble beginning with no money, no equipment, no experience of campaigning but with only the message that the island and the people should be represented by Rodriguans, and to prove, in the long run, that Rodriguans are capable of taking the affairs of the island in their own hands.  The message was clear and simple and it marked a new beginning and a turnaround in the way politics will be shaped in Rodrigues.
In the previous elections held in August 1967, a Mauritian party, the PMSD had conquered Rodrigues with 98% of the votes. The PMSD leader, Gaetan Duval was a very strong and popular leader, especially among the Creoles. His party had won 44 % of the votes in Mauritius but lost to the Independence Party. It was consequently a mammoth task for Serge Clair and his new born party to turn 98% of voters away from the PMSD. However, prior to the arrival of Serge Clair on the scene, the small group of Rodriguan elite had started to organise and think of breaking away from political parties coming from the mainland Mauritius. It was also due to the fact that the elected members, representing Rodrigues in the National Parliament namely, Guy Olivery and Clement Roussety had "deserted" the island. So, when Serge Clair started his "dialogue" with the Rodriguans, he already had the support of the elite of Rodrigues. After only three months of campaigning, the OPR catched 36% of the votes. It was a defeat and a victory at the same time. From then on, the OPR grew momentum and won the subsequent elections overwhelmingly.
After having been a  minister for Rodrigues in the Mauritian government, Serge Clair found that a Ministry for Rodrigues was not good enough and started campaigning for devolution, that is for Rodrigues to be an autonomous region with a regional assembly. He finally won that battle after 20 years of perseverance.
In 2002, the MMM/MSM government of Mauritius declared the island of Rodrigues as an autonomous region based on the model of Trinidad and Tobago. The first regional elections were help in 2002 and obviously the OPR won  against another rodriguan party, the MR. From then on started a new chapter in the history of Rodrigues when the Rodriguans were taking matters in their own hands and decided what is good for the island and how resources should be distributed. It was again humble beginnings and a learning curve for the new local politicians who were suddenly called  to assume responsibilities, take major decisions and develop policies and administer. They did not do too bad during that teething period.
In 2006 the MR took control of the Regional Assembly after a coup d'état de palais. The new team under the leadership of Johnson Roussety subsequently won the next elections by a narrow margin. It was new style of government where there were heaps of corruptions and nepotism. There were also internal fighting within the MR to the point that the leader of the MR, Nicholas VonMally, had to dismiss the sitting Chief Commissioner Johnson Roussety. Subsequenly the latter broke way and formed his own party the Front Patriotique Rodriguais (FPR).
The regional elections of 2012 were a contest among the OPR, MR  and FPR and conseqently the OPR of Serge Clair won back the control of the Regional Assembly. A new and more experienced team under the leadership of the Chief Commissioner Serge Clair, started a series of revolutionary measures to develop the island: kiliometres of roads were constructed, a better heath system in place, investment in schools and colleges, incentives for small business, the tourism industry saw a boost, gites and tables d'hotes grew exponentially, the economy thus became decentralised  where ordinary  Rodriguans, who had become small entrepreneurs, had their share. Rodrigues also became ecologically friendly with the banning of plastic bags and regulating the fishing of octopus and greening the island. On the flip side, during the past two years the island suffered a drought and water became a problem which hindered the agricultural industry and water for consumption became a rare commodity. In the absence of rain, desalination plants had to be operated but unfortunately they could not cater for the demand. The government had to deal with the scarcity of water and management of the water distribution to the people  was not at its best.
Then came the new regional elections on February 2017 and balancing the problems against the positives, the people of Rodrigues chose to continue with the OPR administration on one side, and they rejected the opposition team which had misgoverned the country from 2006 to 2012 on the other. Thinking that Johnson Roussety would be in power again was scary and this was the major downfall of the opposition. He had been so bad while in power that the people of Rodrigues will never forget and forgive him.
GDL

Maurtian politics

Mauritian Politics by GDL

Politique nationale par Georgy Lamvohee

Le mauvais calcul de XLD

Voila les des sont jetees, finalement Xavier Luc Duval et le PMSD ont tranche, ils quittent la barque de l’alliance le pep qui prend l’eau de tout part, pour etre dans l’opposition. A entendre XLD , le nouveau leader de l’opposition, il a quitte le gouvernement sur une question de principle cad contre la mise en place d’une Prosecution Commission qui est anti-constitutionel en reduisant les pouvoirs et l’independence du DPP. Est ce vraiement cette Prosecution Commission qui a ete la pomme de discorde ?? Les mauriciens ne sont pas des cons qui acceptent et avalent tout ce que racontent les politiciens. La premiere personne a feliciter XLD pour son soit-diant “courage” de quitter le gouvernement a ete sans surprise Navin Ramgoolam. Ce dernier s’est senti soulager et doit une fiere chandele a XLD, a qui il a promis le poste de Preminer Ministre dans une alliance Ptr/PMSD, car so licou ti lors biyo. Si le DPP a raye  11 des charges contre Navin Ramgoolam, la Prosecution Commission allait revisiter tous ses cas. D’autre part il parait tres etrange que les accusations contre Navin ont ete rayees une par une; n’est ce pa un peu bizarre quand on connait maintenant qui est vraiment Navin Ramgoolam et comment il a dirige l’ile Maurice pendant plus de 10ans: dans la corruption et le nepotisme ?? Est-ce vraiment possible que la police, le CCID, ont mal mene toutes ses enquetes contre Navin Ramgoolam?? Si c’est pas drole, cela a rendu tout le monde perplexe.

En bloquant la Prosecution Commission, XLD a surtout sauve son ami d’hier et de demain, Navin, de la prison et ainsi etre sure que Navin sera “propre” pour la prochaine campagne. C’est ca le vrai enjeu. Mais d’autre part, le depart du PMSD n’a rien change; le MSM et son allier le ML ont a majorite et peut gouverner en toute serenite. Et si le gouvernement veut vraiment  ammender la constitution et instaurer cette fameuse Prosecution Commission, il y a tant de “roudeurs boutes” qui font la queue pour entrer au gouvernmenet. Il y a une tradition de transfuge a Maurice depuis SSR et cette tradition continue de plus belle. Si ce n’est pour un marocain ministerielle  c’est pour quelques millions de roupies. Devant cett eventualite le PMSD est devenu le dindon de la farce. Ils doivent maintenant etre dans l’opposition pour encore trois ans. Pire il y a deja des defections au sein du PMSD et l’emoragie risque de continuer jusqu’au prochaines elections.  Et si c'est vrai qu'il y a deja une alliance entre le PMSD et le PT, et que Navin a promis a XLD le poste de PM, XLD se souvienne ce qui est arrive a son pere qui attendait sur le peon toute la nuit. Toi XLD tu vas attendre avec une bougie rouge le poste de PM promis par Navin.

Vennons maintenant au cher Navin Ramgoolam, l’homme aux millions. Est ce que les mauriciens veulent  vraiement le retour de ce “payboy” comme PM de l’ile Maurice ? Est- ce que les mauriciens veulent le retour de Soornack et ses valises a l’aeroport? Est-ce que les mauriciens vont avaler leurs crachats ? Il n’y a que XLD qui croit en cela car un sondage realise par L’express recement donne le MSM comme le plus grand parti a Maurice, et cela a un moment ou le gouvernement est egale a “pourriture”.

GDL.

The idiosyncrasies of Mr 10 %

Suite a ma chronique anlytique sur les annees sombres qu’a connue Rodrigues dans la periode ou le FPR (sous le couvert de MR) etait au pouvoir, le leader minimo, en  perte de vitesse au point d’aller mendier, comme un petit toutou, une alliance avec le MR, crache son venin.

Pour ce qui  des palabres pour Mr 10% sont des verites pour  90% des electeurs qui l’ont sanctione au cours des dernieres elections en l’envoyant dans Koro kann sorry Karro lacacia.  Faut egalement rendre homage a la verite que pendant ces annees la Rodrigues a connu des politiciens de bas etages ou l’interet personel passait avant tout. Dans son dernier message Nicholas Vonmally parlait des politiciens qui ne pensent qu’a leurs interets personels et avancait que seulement 5% de politiciens sont honetes et sinceres, on se demande bien qui en particuier il faisait allusion ? Facile a deviner !!

 En ce qui concerne les transferts punitifs, la liste est longue. Mr Pierre Louis nous dira certainement d’ou sont venus les ordres ou si vouloir employe 256 labourers sans passer par la PSC etait normale  !!!!

D'autre part la facon dont les terrains de Rodrigues etaitent "distribues "durant cette periode pose beuacoup de questions. Certains dissent qu'ils ont du payer cherement pour un bail auquel ils avait droit ou pas. Toujours au niveau des plabres , on parle egalement des millions de roupies qui ont change de main  durant cette periode, d'un coffre fort de Rs32 millions ou encore des valises vennant de Mauricie remplies de billets.                                                                                                      Une question qui merite d’etre posee: si ce cher Monsieur a ete un commissaire exemplaire comme il le pretent, pourquoi donc il a ete deboulone, voire demande de lev pake aller pour etre remplace par Gaetan Jabimissar. C’est sure que les bornes etaient depasees ou point ou cela devenait pas non seulement intolerable, mais embarassante vis a vis de Maurice et du monde.                                    

Au cours d’une session, j’ai personellement assiste a une scene des plus audieux quand un elu du peuple ne respectait pas l’etiquette de l’Auguste Assemblee, abusant d’un unparliamentary language pour ne pas dire des grossieretes, allant jusqu’a meme faire fi du ruling du speaker. On ne peut alors se demander s’il y un meilleur mot pour qualifier ce “disrespected member” que celui qui a ete utilise et si la methode utilisee par la police n’etait pas justifiee.

Finalement je ne suis ni un rodeur boute, encore moins un mercenaire car je n’ai rien demande a qui que ce soit. Mais ayant contribue, dans le passe, a eveiller une conscience Rodriguiase, j’etais venu me rendre compte de ce qu’est devenue Rodrigues apres 15 ans d’autonomie et j'en ai fait une evaluation. Si j’ai vu un development infrastructurel sans precedent, j’ai constate une degradation au niveau social et politique, concluant que l’immoralite politique, pronee par certains, a surement contribue a cet etat de choses.
La corruption a fait son entrée dans les moeurs politiques a Rodrigues et c’est un tres triste constat.

Australian Politics

The rise of Pauline Hanson and One Nation
by GDL

The latest poll shows a remarkable rise in support from voters to Pauline Hanson and her party, One Nation, since the last general elections in July 2016.

"ONE Nation’s comeback took many Australians by surprise, but the latest Newspoll survey shows support for the party has increased fourfold across the country and almost doubled in Queensland since the July 2 Federal Election. The Newspoll survey reveals support for One Nation in the lower house has risen to six per cent from 1.3 per cent on election day.
Its primary vote has bounced to 10 per cent in Queensland, up from 5.5 per cent at the election, The Australian reports on Monday. "
Read more at
http://www.news.com.au/national/politics/postelection-support-for-one-nation-soars-in-the-latest-newspoll-results/news-story/38ab8d493b78614712ecf9a3d287d607

Many were already surprised how One Nation did so well in the last elections especially for the senate votes. One nation has now three elected senators. The party campaigned on keeping Australia safe from terrorists and the way to do it is to have a full investigation on the activites of some Muslims in Australia and a Royal commission on Islam, which according to Mrs Hanson, has no place in Australia. Islam and the Islamists, she says, are against Australian values For her, Islam is a religion of hatred and war, an ideology which has political motives rather that religious values. Pauline Hanson reinterated this in her maiden speech in parliament  where again she asked for a ban on Muslim immigration to Australia and that Muslims who cannot integrate and accept Australian laws and values should go back to where they can have their way. She also requests that any Muslim breaching the law and sentenced to more that one year jail should be deported. She also demands that the burka be banned in Australia as there is no religious obligation attached to it. Australia, she argues, is a western democracy with western values and everyone who comes to Australia should abide to the laws of the land and embraces the values.
One Nation policies regarding Muslims and Islam are not confined to Australia Only. The Front National in France has for long warned the successive governments about the dangers poised by the Islamists and the growing number of Muslims in France which is a breeding ground for terrorists.  The various attacks in France, Chalie Heddo, Bataclan, Nice etc... have proved Marine Lepen right and this is also why the Front National is growing and now polling at 35%. It is predicted that Marine Lepen will come first in the first round of the presidential elections in France next year.
We are also witnessing the rise of Anti-Muslims and anti-immigration parties in various parts of Europe. It looks like people are saying "Enough is enough of these Muslims immigration" and more and more people believe that Islam is a breeding ground for terrorists and their attacks on innocents.

Voters are turning away form mainstream political parties are essentially because they appear to soft towards the Islamists and playing politics with the Muslims. In Australia, both Labor and the Coalition sing the same song about Muslims' tolerance, that all Muslims are not bad, that most Muslims are good citizens.!!! This is not music to the ears of non Muslims.

Besides the Muslim/Islam issue there are many other issues why people are tuning their backs on traditional political parties. They are no more relevant, they are no more listening to the people, they are not putting forward policies of reforms and long term strategies, they are too short sighted and driven only by the desire to be re-elected. It is all politics without substance, politics without economic plans, politics for the sake of looking good. All talk and no action while the problem of poverty, high cost of living, unemployment are hitting hard and electoral promises not kept. The people have come to realise that there is no hope with traditional political parties which tend to look after themselves and their mates before the people.

There is a wave surging and voters are turning more to smaller and populist parties, a way to show their disillusionment towards the big parties and their lies. Pauline Hanson, Nick Xenophone, Marine Lepen and others are surging on this wave of rejection of traditional parties and by highlighting the weakness and irrelevance of the big parties. The non-traditional parties are talking the language of the ordinary people who are victims of globalisation, who are not benefiting from any economic boom and who see the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer. It is a sort of revolution happening in silence and who knows could rise up tomorrow like a tsunami which will sweep the traditional right and left wing parties away.
GDL

PS. It is reported that in Mauritius too, people are turning away form the big political parties like MSM. MLP, MMM and PMSD,

Mauritian Politics  by GDL

A futile  and empty debate

Mauritian politicians consistently and deliberately take the Mauritian people for fools.When you read their comments or arguments you wonder whether they realised that there are intelligent people Mauritius and abroad who are taking them for a laughing stock.
Recently the actual Prime Minister, SAJ, declard that he will step down and his son will take over as PM. This caused such an uproar in Mauritius. A PMSD lawyer said that it is the Deputy PM who should take over. Is he trying to make a case or what ? The disgraced Navin Ramgoolam for his part declared that this is not in order and that there should be general elections, arguing that the people voted SAJ as PM during the last elections and that Pravin Jughnuth has no right to be PM. This is mere bullshit if not dillusion or madness. The same Navin Ramgoolam knows quite well that Mauritius' constitution and political system is based on the Westminster system that his own father adopted. He also knows that he became PM because he was the leader of a majority party which had relied on alliances with other minor parties. Plus ridicule que ca tu meurs dirait l'autre!!!.
What about Paul Berenger, the soit-disant consitutional expert ? He also thinks that there should be general elections but  later added that he would respect the decision of the President and it all depends on the judgement of the President!! He then talked about immorality!! Is there such thing as morality in politics, in Mauritius particularly.???
The constitutional expert does not seem to be familiar with the Westminster system where the PM is chosen by the party and not necessarily by the people.When Tony Blair stepped down, the party chose another leader Gordon Brown to be PM. When David Cameron was in alliance with the Democrates, he was PM because his party was majority. Lately when Cameron resigned, the party chose Theresa May as leader and PM. In Australia in the middle of his term, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd was replaced by Julia Gillard and later re-replaced by Kevin Rudd without the need for a general elections. And Mauritius is no different. SAJ can chose to step down anytime and as it is the MSM, which is the majority party, in the alliance or not, which decides who will replace SAJ. It is as simple as that.
Now if anyone including Paul Berenger or Xavier Duval or Ivan Collendavello thinks that he can command a majority in parliament,  he can go  to the President and say so, Then this will be tested on the floor of parliament and parliament would vote for a PM. But everyone in Mauritius knows that this will never happen, XLD has already declared that he is happy as deputy PM and has no ambition of becoming PM. He also knows that if he tries a spill, he will be out of government that is why li pe ferme so la bouche. In the present circumstances, no other leader apart from Pravin Jughnuth can replace SAJ as PM. This is the fact. So depi so Navin ou Berenger or other amateur politicians should stop bullshiting and take people for fools because they are the real fools.

Australian politics

What has changed ? By GDL
22 September 2016

It is now one year since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister and three months already since the general elections. To be honest, I am at pain to see what concretely Malcolm and his government has achieved since then. There has been lots of talking, then the budget speech, but no signs of reforms and  people are not better off nor have they felt any change in their day to day living. Have you ?
The results of the elections were far from brilliant for Malcolm Turnbull as his coalition lost many seats and he is now ruling with a majority of only one!!! He and his government are on a knife's edge. Malcolm Turnbull said that he would be different from Tony Abbott and that he will lead the country on new economic path. " This country needs a new economic leadership" he said. Where are that new ways, new strategies or new policies? The budget, presented by the superstar Scott Morrison, is still in limbo and not sure of passing through the senate. Lately government had to back off on their ironclad superannuation policy under pressure from their own backbenchers  and the opposition. Each and every policy or measure announced in the budget has now to be negotiated with the opposition and the senate crossbenchers.
What has really changed is that voters showed their disapproval for mainstream parties like Liberal and Labour and turned to smaller parties like Pauline Hanson and Nick Xenophon. What has really changed is that most people in Australia disapproved the way Labor and Liberal are giving in to Muslims. They are afraid to talk openly against Islam and the Islamists and are embedded in political correctness. Such a pathetic and weak stance from the major parties have turned voters to far right wing and populists parties. When Malcolm Turnbull invited the Muslims for dinner at the lodge, among them were some radicals who have spoken against our democracy, the right of women , gays and lesbians. On that night, which was before the elections, in trying to attract Muslim votes, the Coalition lost 600,000 votes in Queensland and many more in other states. A poll released this week showed that 49 percent of Australians want a ban on Muslim immigration. This proves that what Pauline Hanson has been advocating during the elections has found resonance with the Australians.
On the economic front, since the Liberals came to power, the deficit has increased. The rating agencies have warned that if there is no serious repairs to the budget bottom line Australia risks to lose its AAA credit rating. This has sent the alarm bell to our leaders and politicians as right now we a paying close a  billion dollars in interest payment. If we lose our AAA rating the cost of borrowing will be much higher. So where are the reforms? Where are the repairs to the budget and strategy to reduce the deficit ? Where will the savings coming from and where will the revenues coming from? Your guess is as good as mine if you follow closely the political narratives.
The price of commodities like iron ore are stumbling and our current account deficit increasing. Where is the path to a new economic future, the economic revolution of Mr Turnbull ? The innovative and technological economic challenge that we will overcome ? It's all talk and no action. It is all about the blame game, excuses, procrastinations, reviews etc... It is all politics and political games.

Mr Turnbull, you have not turned the economic bull around you are rather turning in circle. When will you start governing ?
GDL.

Australian Politics

Why voters turning away from the major parties
by GDL

We are now only some days away from the election date and according to the latest polls, some 15% of voters are turning their backs on the major parties and will vote for smaller parties or independents. What has happened and why such a relatively high percentage of disenchanted voters ?
To understand that psychology let us turn back the clock some years.

The Australian Labor Party (ALP) was in the 50s and 60s,  a rather radical left wing  party  fighting for the working class and the workers but since since the 80s when  Hawke and Keating came to power they undertook major reforms, The ALP was then more of a center left party. In 2007 when Kevin Rudd  (Kevin07) won an overwhelming victory over, the used by date Liberal, John Howard, the ALP, the party moved to the center, embracing a social democracy ideology. It was not a bad thing to open up the middle class as the latter are also victim of the liberal ideology of looking only only after their mates of the upper class. The new ALP also favoured free enterprise and recognised that the private sector is the motor of the economic growth  and creation of jobs. Unfortunately the problem of the ALP started in 2007 when Kevin Rudd became arrogant and out of touch so much so that the ALP deposed of him as a first term Prime Minister. From there started the quarrels and division inside the ALP. One of the faceless men who knifed Kevin Rudd was no other than Bill Shorten, who is now the leader of the ALP, the man who wants to be PM. Julia Gillard, the first female PM of Australia, was  a catastrophe when she went in bed with the extreme left wing, The Greens and legislated a carbon tax. She did not last long as she was again knifed by the same Bill Shorten to be replaced by the recycled Kevin Rudd. Obviously the ALP suffered a sever defeat at the 2013 elections. They were voted out or kicked in the backside.

The Liberal/ National coalition came to power in 2013, by default, led by the controversial and conservative right winger Tony Abbott. The new government immediately shown their colours in the 2014 budget when, in the name of reforms, they smashed the working class, the middle class,  the families, the pensioners, the students, the unemployed  while giving tax cut to big business and big polluters. Since then things went so wrong for the new government that Tony Abbott (Mikey Mouse) and his fat treasurer Joe Hockey (Donald Duck) were sacked. The, so called progressive Liberal leader, billionaire Malcolm Turnbull was installed in the PM's chair. The nation expressed   a big sigh of relief. But  for seven months Mr Turnbull turned around, talked about increasing the GST, the state  tax, marriage equality, climate change, the need for renewable energy, did the talk without doing the walk , seven months as PM he did virtually NOTHING.

With this as the backdrop how do you want voters to trust someone who knifed two sitting  prime ministers and and another one  who knifed his first term and Liberal colleague PM ?? How can you trust these two men to be the guardians of the Constitution and the future of the nation ??  If you have watched the  4 corners program you will understand how Bill Shorten mutinously calculated and planned ,when he was at  the ACTU, to be PM one day. It was  not without walking on dead bodies or if you prefer "ambition demesuree" as the French will put it. No strange how he used the tactics  or strategy to depose two PMs  (Kevin and Julia) as he wanted to be caliph a la place du caliph !!!

How do you want voters to trust the billionaire Malcolm Turnbull to look after the interest of the poor and the vulnerable ? He is a successful businessman, a merchant banker. He is rich and money for him is not a problem. His problem is that he wants power and recognition. He wants to be the caliph and the world to respect him as the head of the Australian government. He wants to rule the country as a business, Malcolm Inc. His first move was to give big tax cut to his mates of the big business. The respected journalist, Paul Kelly, rightly said on Sky News that Malcolm is  not a politician , he is not driven by ideology, he is a business man.  Mind you, government comes and go but business continues to prosper. The banks continue to make billions dollars profit  while the poors get poorer .

Now do you find it  strange that voters are not listening to those who pretend to be our leaders and spitting on the ones who ambition to be our Prime Ministers ?

You might think that I missed the Greens  but if yo think that the Greens  are worth talking about, I am sorry as I think they are but dreamers. They do not deserve any attention.

GDL
Radio Kotak Australia

Australian Politics: On the campaign trail with GDL

On the campaign trail with GDL (continued)
28 May 2016

We are now in the third week of the campaign and few more weeks to go till the 2nd of July. Many promises have been made from both sides of politics. While the government is campaigning on Growth and Jobs, the opposition, the Australian Labor Party (ALP), is more focused on social issues like Education and Health. So far, and according to the polls, the ALP is doing better. The second polls released since the beginning of the campaign put ALP in front. According to the Morgan Research released yesterday, if an election was held today, the ALP would win 85 seats in parliament and governing in their own right without the support of the Greens or independents.
Despite the polls giving Labor in front, I am not convinced at this stage that the ALP will win the forthcoming elections. I explain:
1.Votes will not forget the chaos which prevailed during the Rudd-Gillard years. They are not yet convinced that the ALP is starting afresh and that they will not repeat the gaffes of the years they were in command. The greatest gaffe was the disunity and the inner quarellings.
2. The other big gaffe of the ALP was their policy on the asylum seekers and refugees. During the time the ALP was in power, they reversed the Temporary Protection Visa and boatloads of illegal asylum seekers invaded our shores. The people smugglers trade flourished under the ALP years as they knew that the ALP is soft on the issue and that they cannot and will not stop the boats. Furthermore this trade saw the death of some one hundred  people when some boats sank.
The opposition, led by the controversial Tony Abbott, won the elections particularly on that issue.
3. The ALP instead of learning the  lesson, and even though they have voted in the party convention to stop the boats, divisions have emerged during the campaign that they are not united on stopping the boats. The biggest blunder came from Anthony Albanese, a front bench of the ALP, who cannot say whether he will sent the illegal refugees back and stop the boats. His biggest blunder was to say that they will send the refugees to be processed in Canada. This means that the boats can come and they will send them to Canada. This is music to the ears of people smugglers and the illegals including those economic "refugees" who are taking advantage to get into Australia by the backdoor.
4. Besides Albo, there are apparently 20 other candidates of the ALP who do not support the policy of stopping the boats. It is now perceived that once in power the ALP will be soft on border protection and the boats will start coming back.
5. On the economic front the ALP has trouble to define how they will stimulate the economy and create jobs. It is right to spend more on health and education and other popular social policies but for that the government needs money. There are two ways of raising money, either to make savings in the budget or to raise taxes. Until now the ALP has not convinced the voters where the money will come from and how they will fund all their promises.
6. Australia is going through a tough time with the end of the mining boom and low commodity prices. The budget has reached $39 billion deficit, we are still borrowing and paying debts with interest, and there is no signs of big economic recovery whether locally and on the world stage.
7. Bill Shorten is still not a popular figure even though he is campaigning hard and people starting to know him. He has however done well in the first debate and another one coming soon. Nevertheless  he does not have the charisma  of a great leader and there is doubt whether he can be a good and great Prime Minister.

In view of the points raised above, I am quite skeptical that Bill Shorten will be our next PM. But I can be wrong as the government is not doing well neither and if the voters can ignore these weaknesses of the ALP and be more convinced by their strong social policies then there is a chance for the ALP to come back.

On the campaign trail: Elections 2016

Australian Politics
On the campaign trail by GDL

It is now two weeks since the electoral campaign has started and there are another six weeks to go.
The campaign looks more presidential as the media is focused on the two leaders Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten, as we do not see much of the candidates.
The first debate between the two leaders, in front of 100 undecided,was won by the opposition leader by 42 and 29 to the Prime Minister. The next debate has not been scheduled yet and maybe next week we will see the Treasurer and the shadow Treasurer debating.
Here is a few points noted till now:
The gaffes of the ALP
While I mentioned in my previous blog that the ALP is projecting a united party that was not the case. During the campaign there are noted divisions within the party on the issue of boat people and refugees. At the last party convention, it was voted that the ALP will be strong on border protection, people smuggles, and maintain offshore processing, but some 17 candidates are now expressing opposing views. This division and being soft on border protection are causing much damage to the party and the government is exploiting the division as the inability of the leader to control his troops. The issue of refugees and boat people is a a very sensitive one which divides the nation. Most Australians were enraged to see so many boats with illegals arriving on our shores during the time the ALP was in power so much that the campaign of the then opposition to stop the boats were overwhelmingly endorsed by the voters. Refugees and illegal immigrants are a big concern to Australians as they are using the backdoor, are mostly illiterate, unskilled and cost taxpayers billions of dollars. It looks like the ALP has not learned their lessons from the last elections and may face the same backlash again on that issue.
The other gaffe of the ALP is that one of its candidates,  David Feeney, is now a considered as a cheat and a fraud for not declaring to the tax office that he has an investment property worth $2.3m, which he negatively geared and was also claiming accommodation fees while living a house belonging to his wife. Voters were expecting that he be dis-endorsed as he has caused damage to the party and he is now sure not to be elected.

The shortcomings of the Government:
According to the recent polls, it looks like the change of leader is no biting as expected. For his first campaigning  as PM, Malcolm Turnbull lost the debate and according to commentators, he was not impressive. Furthermore, it is now revealed that the cost of the National Broadband Network while Malcolm was Minister of Communication has blown out.

The Greens for their part are the same lunatics  as they have always been with their idiosyncratic policies. They want the boats of illegals to the welcomed and want to increase the intake of refugees to 50,000 !! If this is not crazy then i don't know what it is.

The polls of today (21/5/2016) shows that the popularity of the PM has gone down and that the two parties are neck to neck on 50%. Many analysts are talking about a hug parliament which is not good for the country as there will be bargaining, if not back mailing, from independents or the greens. We have had that bad experience when Julia Gillard was Prime Minister.

To be continued....

Australian Politics , Labor is back with a New Look

Labor is back, it is a New Labor
by GDL
9 May 2016

It was predictable that for the last general elections the ALP (Australian Labor Party) was going towards a catastrophic defeat because of the divisions, poor leadership and cheap politics carried out by Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard. The wave of disconted so so much against the ALP that the unpopular, conservative and controversial Tony Abbott ( Mikey Mouse gran zoreil) won the elections with a large majority where the ALP lost 21 Seats.
The polls today showed that the table has turned and Labor is in a winning position. This looks like a miracle when looking back as the results of 2013 general elections and considering that Bill Shorten, the new Labor leader, has never been more popular that the sitting Prime Ministers. What are the factors that have turned the voters against the conservative government even though the have a new popular leader, Malcolm Turnbull ? To answer this question we have to go back and look at the past three years of the Liberal-National records in government.

The conservative right wing government of Tony Abbott, as soon in power, showed their true colours and in their 2014 budget presented by Joe Hockey (Donald Duck also known as the fat man) smashed the working class, the families, the pensioners, the students, the mums and dads. They make big cuts to Education and Health and proclaimed that from now on Australians have to live within their means, The coalition had campaign hard and loud on the ALP economic mismanagement, that the budget deficit was unprecedented, the level of debt as a percentage of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) was too high and there is urgent need to cut spending and bring the budget back to surplus as soon as possible. The way to achieve this for Donald Duck and Mickey Mouse was to cut welfare and the socials services as declared that the age of entitlement is over otherwise we will end up like Greece. Australians are no fools, We can never be compared to Greece or any of the PIGS as we have a solid economy which keeps growing. We have  unlimited  mineral resources (including uranium), we have a healthy Agro Industry and we are a net exporter of energy.We have strong commercial ties with our Asian partners: China, Japan, South Korea, India, Indonesia among others.

Budget deficit is not a cancer, we have been living with it for years and not many countries have a budget surplus these days. Deficit or surplus is just an accounting exercise and a temporary situation which does not mean that our country is bankrupt and that soon the IMF will come in tell us what to do. The way to surplus is a gradual path which should not be done by hard and drastic measures and surely not at the expense of poor, the working class and pensioners and this is what the coalition government wanted to do with the 2014 budget. The irony or paradox is that the same people who was crying foul and scaring the voters about budget deficit, have themselves blown out the deficit.When they took office it was $36 billion and today it is $39.9 billion !!!! Suddenly there is no budget emergency and no surplus in sight.
Even though Abbott and Hockey had to back off and eat their humble pies, the Australia voters have not forgotten their threats and their true colours. The government led by Mikey Mouse and Donald Duck never recovered from that blunder and since then the polls were showing that the government was in trouble. The polls were so bad that the Liberals removed their sitting PM and their Treasurer, the same thing for which they have nailed the coffin of the ALP at the last elections.
So, to be in a better position the Liberals chose a new leader, Malcolm Turnbull, a popular figure even among the Labor voters as he looks a nice guy, not arrogant, not a conservative and he presented himself like a social democrat or a centrist. He believes in climate change and is for marriage equality. Immediately after the change of leadership and PM, the polls bounced back in favour of the government. But there started the trouble for the Liberals, the ex-PM and the die hard conservatives and far right wingers of the party, like Cory Bernardy, Kevin Andrews, Eric Abbett joined by the conservative right wingers journalists and commentators like Andrew Bolt, Alan Jones, Chris Kenny and Rohan Dean, Miranda Devine, Ray Adley, etc... started to undermine the leadership of Malcolm Turnbull. The worm is already in the fruit and division within the Liberals was obvious.
Under pressure from the conservative wing, Malcolm Turnbull backed off from all his progressive ideas and became Mr Do Nothing. Indeed for the past six months that he has been leader he did NOTHING to upset the conservatives. He was going in circle with some policies without implementing any. His excuse was that people should wait for the May 2016 where all will be revealed. Meanwhile Malcolm's popularity was melting like snow in the sun.
The famous and long awaited budget was presented by the new Treasurer Scott Morrison last Tuesday and the most striking part of it was tax cuts to small and big business and tax cuts for those who earn $80 K and more. This tax  cut was damming as it again showed the true colours of the Liberal i.e protecting the big end of town, the  rich, the wealthy. Those earning one million dollars or more got a tax cut of some $17,000 while the working class and the middle class, the battlers, the teachers, nurses, council workers, shift workers, got nothing from the budget.
On the other hand the taxpayers will continue to pay for the BMWs, the Mercedes and travels of the business owners and whatever they use to offset the tax not to mention how the taxpayers will continue to pay for the negative gearing of those who own up to 49 houses!!!!

So this is the backdrop. These are only some factors that enraged the voters and made them come back to New Labor who meanwhile is united and has had the courage to put forward some brave policies and continues to fight for the working and middle class  and  for more funding to the schools and hospitals, putting people first.

The elections are still far away (on the 2nd July) the campaign has started. It is not to say that the ALP will win but according to the recent polls, the government is not sure neither  of retaining government. The bets are open, there is no favourite at the time of writing.

The morale; You cannot take the voters fore-granted or take them for a ride. They know how to react.

International Politics

2015 Annus Horribilus
by GDL

In all intense and purposes 2015 was an horrible year for humanity. 2015 will be remembered as the year when we saw the growth and progress of the Islamists Fundamentalists which developed in to a powerful organisation which they call Islamic State Of Iraq Levant or Islamic State of Iraq and Syria or again DESH. This barbaric group now call itself a State because ISIL now controls a good part of Iraq and gradually gaining grounds in Syria. ISIL is more a Sunni group that a Muslim one as they massacred as many Shea Muslim as they killed non-Muslims. They say they are the soldiers of Allah and the defenders of Islam and all the crimes they are committing are in the name of Islam.
So 2015 was a year when these Islamists fundamentalist fanatics  perpetrated a series of terrorist actions causing human casualties of a never saw before proportion. The year started badly with the attack of a barbaric nature on Charlie Hebdo where they killed 17 innocent people who were only doing their work. This attack was a demonstration that these radicals fundamentalists want to destroy one of our richest tradition and values; the free speech and free press/media. It was a sign that not only they do not understand what democracy is all about but that the negate such principles.These barbaric terrorists continued their attacks on innocent civilians during the year 2015 in Turkey, Lebanon and in lately again in Paris.
Obviously most people have been horrified by these killings and atrocities. Many, out of shock, became terrified and eventually scared of being a victim of these bar bars innocently or accidentally, as it is hard to spot them and where and how they operate. They have followers spread in the western world who  carry on their actions on the grounds, like the one in Endeavour Hills, in Sydney CBD and  in Parramatta just to name a few. We have also seen how some young Muslims, born in Australia, have become radicalised to the extent of  joining ISIL in Iraq.

The questions that many have been asking are:
- How far will they go ? How many more innocent will they kill? Will they finally take over Iraq and Syria and control all the petrol wells in the is region ? Will be be able to develop into a powerful state like the old Ottoman Empire ?
Questions can also be asked about, who created the chaos in Iraq in the first place? How comes that the Iraqi army cannot stop ISIL conquering part  of the country ? Are they getting the help required to fight back ISIL ? Will the Western world take arms against ISIL to stop their progress? There have been many words but few actions in this direction.

ISIL which saw another chaos developing in Syria, went in and created more chaos and caused millions to flee the country and took refuge in Turkey and Jordan. These refugees and millions more are now are invading Europe. The war in Syria could have ended with the overthrowing of  Bashar but this dictator (another one) is supported by Russia (and Putin), who supply them with arms.

The year 2015 was also marked by Russia invading part of Ukraine, and with the complicity of some of their supporters in Crimea, they finally manged to cut off the peninsula from Ukraine. Not content of this "victory", Russia (and Putin), backed up and armed the rebels in the northern part of Ukraine. We will also remember how  these Russian backed soldiers brought down a civilian Malaysian airlines with many Australians on board.

So for me and for the world 2015 was indeed a horrible year. Let's hope that 2016 will be better for humanity and peace.

International affairs and politics: who are behind ISIL

International Politics

“The Islam religion was founded by Mohammed in the seventh century. In 622 he founded the first Islamic state, a theocracy in Medina, a city in western Saudi Arabia located north of Mecca. There are two branches of the religion he founded.                                                   The Sunni branch believes that the first four caliphs--Mohammed's successors--rightfully took his place as the leaders of Muslims. They recognize the heirs of the four caliphs as legitimate religious leaders. These heirs ruled continuously in the Arab world until the break-up of the Ottoman Empire following the end of the First World War.”

- See more at: http://historynewsnetwork.org/article/934#sthash.wFVkOW54.dpuf

Who are behind ISIL?

By GDL

At first view ISIL looks like a horde of renegades and criminals whose are using Islam too kill innocent people and attain their objectives. But what are these objectives?                                                          

The Sunnis according to history is a breakaway group who did not agree on the successor of Mohamed. (See above)  Sunnis are largely majority in Islamic countries and in the world. The Shiites or Shias are only majority in Iran and Iraq.

ISIL stands for Islamic State of Iraq Levant.  They are also called ISIS for Islamic State of Iraq and Syria or Daesh. Many commentators and analysts think that ISIL are terrorists who are using Islam to reposition themselves as an Islamic State. A state like the other nation states. They refuse to be treated as a group and this is why they want to conquer territories and land.                                  Other analysts think that ISIL wants to re-establish the Ottoman Empire, as a revenge to how the west dismantled that Islamic Empire and partitioned the Middle East. To rebuild that Islamic Empire ISIL needs money, a strong army and arms and ammunitions. ISIL analysed how the West destroyed Al Qaeda as the Al Qaeda’s structure was weak with no army. So ISIL took another approach. It starts by proclaiming that Islam is in danger and that moderate Muslims and the Shiites are not strong enough to face the west, to combat westernisation from corrupting the minds of Muslims through their marketing and globalisation.

ISIL calls for Muslims all over the world to support and join them in the name of Islam. The call was favourably answered and Muslims from all over joined them. As they gather strength and money to buy arms, they started a rampage by killing mercilessly all those who are not on their side. The Shiites were the first victims through mass execution. Then they started kidnapping westerners asking for ransoms and beheaded them on camera. And the rest everyone knows with horror and disgust.

As their army grew, they started invading part of Iraq particularly the areas rich in oil. By taking control of the oil wells, they sell the oils to Turkey and Syria and in return buy more sophisticated weapons. They continue their conquests of territories in Iraq and win because of the weak Iraqi army.  Having taken over the oil wells of Iraq, they move into Syria amidst the chaotic situation created by Bashar El Assad.

The heart of the question is where are ISIL getting all the money and from who they are buying the weapons? The answers are simple. The money comes from the proceeds of the oils. The weapons come from the countries which manufacture weapons. It is either the USA, or China or Russia or France or UK. Shocking isn’t it?

There lies also all the hypocrisy. While they are all condemning ISIL for the atrocities, they are at the same time selling weapons to these barbars and criminals. Someone somewhere is benefitting for the wars waged by ISIL by selling arms to them and as everyone one knows these weapons are not cheap. Now what about the airstrikes on ISIL? Are these not smoke screens? ISIL has very sophisticated means of technology at they do not flock at the same place. They can easily misled the planes event with their radars. Have you also notices that there are no official figures of how many deaths these airstrikes are causing?

When asked why the USA and the allies do not apply the same force they did for Operation Desert Storm or the invasion of Iraq, the answer is that they do not want to make the same mistake they did in Iraq. Yes that was a big mistake that led to chaos and Bagdad became the most dangerous city in the world. But the mistake is still bigger when they are allowing ISIL to progress and grew and continue their atrocities. But who cares about the atrocities when money is flowing in from the proceeds of war. A few are dying but the economy is growing, from the blood of some.

Now let’s analysed the situation in Syria. Syria under Bashar was quiet and peaceful (just like Iraq was under Sadam). In the Middle East there is no democracy. This notion has a different interpretation, there is “limited” democracy, everything is allowed except talking against the regime. If one is quite, everything is all right, but if you say something against the regime you simply disappear. This is the way it worked in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Iraq and what followed after the west “tried” to impose democracy? Chaos.  Countries like Saudi Arabia, UEA, Qatar, are ruled by dictators, where human rights are inexistent, where women have no rights but these countries are peaceful and prosperous. The trouble in Syria started when the Arab spring also touched the country. The revolutionaries wanted to overthrow Bashar as he belongs to a minority group which is ruling over the Sunni majority. Bashar responded with weapons of mass destruction killing thousands of Syrians. The west condemned the atrocity and gave logistical support to the rebels. This is how the civil war started and is continuing. Meanwhile ISIL went into Syria as they saw the opportunity to conquer territories amid the chaos. This is how the war in Syria became three-legged. Each one was fighting each other. Bashar resists and continues to resist the rebels and ISIL with the help of Russia and Iran.

Again when asked what are their policies towards Syria, where the war is causing millions of refugees to flee to everywhere, the answer from the west is blurred and ambiguous: “We prefer a political solution, we are waiting for Bashar to step down”. Even the most stupid person knows that dictators do not relinquish power easily, they have to be forced out. So with the help of Russia and Iran, Bashar will never step down on his own accord because he also knows that the west will not invade Syria.

However there is need to explore the following questions:
If ISIL is making over 1 milion a day who is buying this oil? It cannot be some simple smuggler, it need to be a state or a multinational. The Russian has suddenly found out that it is Turkey who is buying the oil and with the money they buy weapons for ISIL. Turkey for its part is saying that it is Syria who is buying the oil of ISIL, the same Syria that Russia is supporting.
How are all these oil leaving the Middle East, to other parts of the world? What are the transport companies, as only multinationals which have big petrol boats to transport such big quantities of oil?  How comes we do not know how many tankers are around and where they are heading to ? How are money being exchanged and moved around, only banks can do that. Which banks?Who owns the companies refining these oils, as ISIL only produce selling  crude oil and they do not have refineries.

The only solution to stop this is to have troops on the ground. This question is being deliberately avoided in all the talks, not even how many soldiers on the ground are required, why? The truth is that ISIL has over 300,000 militants and the allies will need more than that on the ground. To defeat ISIL means t killing over 300,000 people plus the casualties on the allies’ side say around 100,000 westerners. Which country is prepared to sacrifice its soldiers? Sadly its seems t that there is a way out, either the situation stays the same or else there will be a massive war coming a third world war.

Meanwhile nothin will change, the war will keep going and weapons will continue to be sold to Bashar, to the rebels and most importantly to ISIL.

Up to you to draw your own conclusion.

GDL.

A proposal for electoral reforms in Rodrigues

Electoral reforms in Rodrigues
by GDL

Many, mainly for the OPR side, were shocked when the Electoral Commission proclaimed the final results of the 2013 Rodrigues Regional Elections. The OPR won the first round of the elections by electing eight candidates at the First Past the Post and the MR had four elected candidates; the margin is 8-4 = 4 but after the proportional votes were added on, the majority of the OPR was reduced to one. This cause an outcry from the majority party but the results were formal and in line with the RRA Act 2002. Serge Clair was furious as well as his team where as the FPR rejoiced that they managed to get two of the candidates in the RR Assembly through the proportional system and none through the FPP, The MR also made gains under the proportional representation and became the main opposition party. Protests from the OPR failed as the Electoral Commissioner had acted according to the law.
Following the results the OPR was asked to form the RRA government with a reduced majority of one. Against all odds the OPR held on but always with the fear that if one of his members could defect they could lose government. The fear was also that one from the majority be bought out or offered money or an important position and consequently OPR would lose power. Luckily the members of the OPR are very discipline, no one crossed the floor.
However, at his last visit, the Prime Minister of Mauritius, SAJ, raised the question and expressed his disagreement with the proportional system, supporting Serge Clair. He even promised that he will amend the RRA Act through parliament. This was music to the ears of Serge Clair but not to the taste of Paul Berenger and still less for the FPR. This statement of PM prompted a debate around the question of PR. Nicholas Vonmally, leader of the MR agreed that it is time to review the system and Johnson Roussety vehemently opposed any change as he knows quite well that his party has no chance of electing candidates under the FPP.
Having heard all the comments and proposals I dare to submit own:
The RRA should be composed of 15 members.
1. I agree the the FPP system has its weaknesses when a candidate ca be elected with less than 50% but that Westminster system has worked in many democracies and always gave a clear result and majority.
2. The full proportional system, like in Israel, has its merits but can be very complicated.
3. The two party preference of Australia is also complicated as it is a combination of FPP and the two round system at one vote.
3. The two rounds system like France works to give a candidate a majority of 50%.

Rodrigues under the RRA Act 2002 has a combination of FFP and proportional system which gave the results we saw and consequences explained above.
So what electoral system for Rodrigues ?
I propose 12 elected from FPP and 3 from a reserved party list = 15.
1. It is very dangerous to divide Rodrigues into six wards or more as a small ward can be  subject to corruption and pork barrelling. Votes can be bought and this is very bad for democracy.
2. If only the FFP is applied in the six wards it can be 6-6 and who won ? This is where the legislators added the PR to give advantage to the party who had the most votes. But there is no need  for an additional party vote.  The party with the most overall votes received should be declared winner,  no matter which ward the candidates come from.
3. So I suggest that Rodrigues be divided in three larger ward with four elected candidates in each ward. 3 is an odd number the probability of equality is minimised.
One party can win between 1 and 12 same for the other parties.
4. Yes there is the possibility of 6 candidates being elected from each two parties or in a thee legged  4+2 against 6.
5. Again the electoral Commissioner will allocated the 3 candidates to the party which has the most votes. So 6 becomes 9 v/s 6 giving a clear majority to the winning party on FPP.

My second option is to have a full proportional vote like in Israel, This is good for a small country like Rodrigues. Each party has a list of 15 candidates and the party which wins the majority wins but can lose if he opposition  parties make a post electoral coalition. But the majority party can govern with the support of smaller parties who had won at least 10%  of the votes.

I am submitting this to Dr Rama Sithanen to see what he thinks.

GDL

The International Creole day : The 28th Of October

The International Creole day
by GDL

Today 28th October is the International Creole day as proclaimed by the United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organisation. It is the highest form of a recognition of our Creole culture. Since that proclamation the world now knows that we exist as a people with a specific cultural identity. This recognition of our culture and language by UNESCO did not arrive by pure chance or hazard, it is the fruit of a long battle by creole academics, militants and politicians. The process   started many years ago by academics of the Caribbean like Aime Cesaire, Edouard Glissant and Gilbert Gratiant and later taken over by Raphael Confiant, Jean Bernabe, Patrick Chamoiseau, Felix Lambert Prudent, Hector Poulet, Dany Laferiere, Rodolf Etienne. Creole academics like Gilbert Martin,Terrel Delphin, and The Creole Heritage Centre of Louisiana have also militate for their recognition as Creoles of the USA.
In the Indian Ocean,  the Republic of the Seychelles took the lead when President Albert Rene renamed the Seychelles "The Creole Republic of the Seychelles". The right hand person who organised the meetings of the representatives of the Creole world was Mrs D'Offay/ de St Jorre. She should be remembered as the Ambassador of the Creole world towards International Agencies like  Agence de Cooperation Culturel et Technique and the UNESCO.
Since 1982 there has been regular meetings in the Seychelles of academics, creolists, linguists, militants, artists, authors, cineastres, etc...and the organisation of an International Creole Festival with artists for the Creole world. These meeting and cultural activities  made echo around the world through intense media coverage. Gradually people of the creole world were getting to know more of each other, what they share in common and expressed the desire to move forward as a people who share the same culture. With such a momentum, books and literature from the creole world proliferated and received more coverage as more and more meetings of the Creole people were organised in different parts of the Creole countries. We also saw the emergence of  creole diasporas in countries like USA, Canada, France and Australia.
In La Reunion people like Alain Armand, Axel Gauvin,Mgr Gilbert Aubry and Jacqueline Fareyrole were talking more and more about the creole culture and its importance in the island.
In Rodrigies the pioneers who nurtured the creole culture were Georgy Lamvohee, Noel Allas and  Antoinette Prudence doing much to value the Rodriguan Creole culture. Serge Clair should also be credited for organising International Creole Festivals where the Rodriguan creoles started to know more about their counterparts in the Indian Ocean and elsewhere.

In Mauritius the combat was at the beginning more  focussed  on the recognition of the Creole language led by people like Dev Virasawmy and Vinesh Homooksing, Arnaud Corporan. But the Creole culture as such was more pushed forward by  Jean Maurice Labour, Jimmy Harmon, Jocelyn Gregoire. Minister Xaxier Luc Duval, should be praised by taking the lead to organise a yearly Festival International Creole in Mauritius while the Seychelles and Rodrigues have been doing if for years.

The Creole Diasporas, composed mainly of Haitians have also been very vocal by organising a yearly Creole month in Montreal with the backing of the Quebec Government. Many academics have also emerged from Haiti.

Today Creole people are found in many parts of the world, in the islands of the Indian Ocean and the Caribbean as well as in Europe, USA, Latin America, Cuba, Brazil, Canada, Australia.  They are proud to have brought a new culture and civilisation to the world and thus enriching the planet with a their food, their architecture, their language, their way of life, their music and dances. The Creole people have a history; from a culture which was born during the colonisation era, a culture born on the plantations, a culture born in sufferings but which has developed into a new, dynamic, rich  and modern one which keeps on rolling.
We are creoles and proud to be.

Australian Politics : We have a new Prime Minister

How Malcolm turned the bull around
by GDL

At the last elections the people of Australia chose to throw the Labor Party out of power and by default Tony Abbott became Prime Minister of Australia. Although having been a very good opposition leader, not many people liked Tony Abbott, some even hated him but voted for the Liberal party at the last general elections because they were fed up with Rudd, Gillard and...Bill Shorten. Tony Abbott was disliked as he was arrogant, a conservative and very right winger. Some would even say that ideologically he is on the far right and no different to Pauline Hanson. If difference there is ,Tony is more smart. Presenting the 2014 budget measures Joe Hockey became the most hatred politician in the land for his attacks on the working class, the students, the pensioners, families, the unemployed, the working class while favouring the big end of town. As Tony Abbott fully supported his Treasurer, he also shared the hatred from the Australian people and the media did not spare him neither. In fact Tony Abbott, who has never been popular, was worse as a PM. He was not even popular within his own party The Liberals!!!. While he survived a first revolt some months back, some weeks ago his party got rid of him and replaced him by Malcolm Turnbull. The party did the right thing as the government under Tony Abbott was very unpopular and was sure, according to the polls, of losing  at next year's general elections.
Malcolm Turnbull is a very rich man who worked hard in life to build his wealth. He was deposed as leader of the Liberals by Tony Abbott and deposing Tony Abbot as Prime Minister and leader of the Liberals was  a sweet revenge. However, Malcolm Turnbull has never been arrogant and has always been close to the people and sympathetic to the cause of  the working class and the middle class. Despite being a capitalist, Malcolm through his simplicity, has always talked sense. He is even popular among the Labor voters so much that many would wish he was a member of their party and would have wanted him as leader of the Labor Party. As he  always been  close to the people, a republican and a non-conservative, the right wingers of the Liberals do not like him and call him a man of the left. Among these ultra conservatives are Andrew Bolt, Ray Adley, Alan Jones, R Dean, Cory Berbardy who are admirers of Tony Abbott and now doing everything to undermine the Prime Ministership of Malcolm Turnbull. Some are even thinking of establishing a Conservative Party to protect the "values" of the conservatives which are extreme rights values to my analysis.
Since the change of  Prime Minister, the people of Australia from all walks of live are seeing a change of style of leadership, a new and simple PM, a man of the people at the head of government. Even those who are hard core labor voters are now showing sympathy for Malcolm and much prefer him to their actual leader Bill Shorten. The rating of Malcolm as preferred Prime Minister is as high as 68% which is quite significant. Malcolm and his new look cabinet of Ministers, which excludes Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey (of course), as well as some old farts, is a new start and give new hope to the people of Australia. More women are now in Cabinet which is a positive recognising the merit of  women like Kelly O'Dwyer and Marise Pierce. Julie Bishop is no more alone  as before in the boy's club of  Mikey Mouse and Donald Duck. Already Malcolm is communicating better to the people and his minsters are also adopting a new style far from being arrogant. Even Christopher Pierce is mo more riding on his high horses as he used to do. Malcolm Turnbull is gradually bringing the government from a right wing position to the middle and governing for the mainstream, more of a social democracy ideology. How much will be be successful remains to be seen while facing resistance from conservatives of the Liberal Party.
Looking at the polls, it is clear that the change of PM has put the Labor party from a winning position to  a very difficult situation. The 2014 budget of Tony Abbott has turned many voters away from the Liberal party and the government but today many are confused because we have a very popular PM coming from a party which normally do not like the middle and working class, a party which favours their rich friends and espousing the right wing ideology. The confusion is also in the fact that Bill Shorten is not popular with the Australian people and neither in his own party.
The question for the Australian voters is whether they will chose between Malcolm Turnbull or Bill Shorten or they will  vote for the party which will be more sympathetic to their cause with better and more progressive policies ?

Australian Politics

Bronwyn now gone, what next ?
By GDL.

After having been under pressure and in damage control for weeks, the Liberals finally gave way and get Bronwyn to vacate the seat of speaker. The departure (or sacking) of that old fart, Bronwyn, saved Tony Abbott and his party from disaster. It was a such relief for Tony Abbott and his government.
But it was also a relief for the parliamentarians of the Labor Party because, Bronwyn has been  so bias and partisan to the extent of throwing them out of the chamber for standing up to her. The old woman, Bronwyn, threw members of the Labor Party out of parliament  400 times. She also never listened to their griefs and disregarded their points of order. She was not worthy of the title of Speaker who, once in the chair, should be above party lines.To add insult to injury she was lavishly spending taxpayers' money on her extravagant travels and enjoyments. It is now rumoured that she will not event contest the next elections !!
Now there is a new speaker Tony Smith, who made a sober speech on his first day, and there are promising signs that he would be better speaker. The eyes and ears are now turning to the government and the opposition and their long awaited policies for the future of Australia. What can we expect ?
The coalition government seems to have exhausted their ammunitions and cannot come back again with their policies/slogans of the past elections of turning back the boats and repealing the carbon tax. Neither can they come back talking about budget repairs and deficit as they have got a bad situation worse (to use the words of Donal Duck). The deficit is now bigger than when they took office, iron ore price slumping, unemployment on the rise, growth is lower than what they forecast but they are still spending and ignoring that there is a revenue problem.They are burning what they adored. They do not want to talk about increasing the GST and now talking about reducing income tax !!! Actually, as Paul Kelly said, no one is listening to the broken records of Joe Hockey; and the finance minister, Mathias Corman, is struggling to explain the economics whenever he faces the media. On what platforms will the coalition go to the next elections is any body's guest.  
What about the Labor party of Mr Bill Shorten ? First Bill is short of being a fiscal conservative. His economic credentials leaves much to be desired. He is still not telling us whether he intends to repair the budget and raise revenue. Instead he is talking about spending more on Education, Health and Social Services. For the last elections Australians kicked Labor  in the arse for their idiosyncrasies,  inconsistencies, shortcomings and inner bickerings,  which gave us, by default, a coalition government and Tony Abbott as PM.                                                                                                What will happen next year, which party to vote for in its own right ? The Liberals will not have a Labor government to blame and will have to campaign on their success and what they have done well while in government. But what are these positives ? What will be their new policies and will people believe in the new promises since they broke all their promises while in office ? Will Joe Hockey still be around to smoke his cigar after presenting a f.... budget ? Will Scott Morrisson be in the forefront during the campaign and presented as the next treasurer of even the future PM ? Will that be enough to save the government ?
On the Labor's side, will people forget the killing years of Rudd and Gillard and how they turned voters away from the party ? Will people forgive them for their alliance with the Greens which gave us the infamous carbon tax ? Will the Labor Party be presenting a new and clean Labor ?  Is Bill Shorten not too short of convincing arguments and policies to obtain the trust of the voters ? Can Labor win back its traditional voters i.e the bulk of the working class, unemployed, migrants, students, pensioners, battlers, and the middle class who have been victims of the coalition government ? Can Bill Shorten win the argument of climate change and the introduction of an ETS ? Will they attract Green voters with their promise of "le marriage pour tous" ? Can they get back those who were against boats arrivals with their "me too" policy ?
These are questions that will face the voters next year but for the time being the answers, my friend, are blowing in the wind.
GDL.