Australian Politics: On the campaign trail with GDL

On the campaign trail with GDL (continued)
28 May 2016

We are now in the third week of the campaign and few more weeks to go till the 2nd of July. Many promises have been made from both sides of politics. While the government is campaigning on Growth and Jobs, the opposition, the Australian Labor Party (ALP), is more focused on social issues like Education and Health. So far, and according to the polls, the ALP is doing better. The second polls released since the beginning of the campaign put ALP in front. According to the Morgan Research released yesterday, if an election was held today, the ALP would win 85 seats in parliament and governing in their own right without the support of the Greens or independents.
Despite the polls giving Labor in front, I am not convinced at this stage that the ALP will win the forthcoming elections. I explain:
1.Votes will not forget the chaos which prevailed during the Rudd-Gillard years. They are not yet convinced that the ALP is starting afresh and that they will not repeat the gaffes of the years they were in command. The greatest gaffe was the disunity and the inner quarellings.
2. The other big gaffe of the ALP was their policy on the asylum seekers and refugees. During the time the ALP was in power, they reversed the Temporary Protection Visa and boatloads of illegal asylum seekers invaded our shores. The people smugglers trade flourished under the ALP years as they knew that the ALP is soft on the issue and that they cannot and will not stop the boats. Furthermore this trade saw the death of some one hundred  people when some boats sank.
The opposition, led by the controversial Tony Abbott, won the elections particularly on that issue.
3. The ALP instead of learning the  lesson, and even though they have voted in the party convention to stop the boats, divisions have emerged during the campaign that they are not united on stopping the boats. The biggest blunder came from Anthony Albanese, a front bench of the ALP, who cannot say whether he will sent the illegal refugees back and stop the boats. His biggest blunder was to say that they will send the refugees to be processed in Canada. This means that the boats can come and they will send them to Canada. This is music to the ears of people smugglers and the illegals including those economic "refugees" who are taking advantage to get into Australia by the backdoor.
4. Besides Albo, there are apparently 20 other candidates of the ALP who do not support the policy of stopping the boats. It is now perceived that once in power the ALP will be soft on border protection and the boats will start coming back.
5. On the economic front the ALP has trouble to define how they will stimulate the economy and create jobs. It is right to spend more on health and education and other popular social policies but for that the government needs money. There are two ways of raising money, either to make savings in the budget or to raise taxes. Until now the ALP has not convinced the voters where the money will come from and how they will fund all their promises.
6. Australia is going through a tough time with the end of the mining boom and low commodity prices. The budget has reached $39 billion deficit, we are still borrowing and paying debts with interest, and there is no signs of big economic recovery whether locally and on the world stage.
7. Bill Shorten is still not a popular figure even though he is campaigning hard and people starting to know him. He has however done well in the first debate and another one coming soon. Nevertheless  he does not have the charisma  of a great leader and there is doubt whether he can be a good and great Prime Minister.

In view of the points raised above, I am quite skeptical that Bill Shorten will be our next PM. But I can be wrong as the government is not doing well neither and if the voters can ignore these weaknesses of the ALP and be more convinced by their strong social policies then there is a chance for the ALP to come back.