The Australian Federal Liberal Party in turmoil
by GDL
Some four weeks ago, some back benchers of the Federal Liberal Party mounted a spill against their leader and Prime Minister, Tony Abbott. According to some backbenchers, the spill was needed because Tony Abbott was making mistakes/gaffes after mistakes and the party was going down in the polls and the popularity of Tony Abbott was the lowest a Prime Minister of Australia ever recorded. According to the polls, if an election was held then, the Coalition government would be wiped out from office and many backbenchers would lose their seats. The call for a spill caused havoc within the party and mainly among ministers who would lose their positions if there were a reshuffle. The one most in danger was Joe Hockey, whose budget has caused voters' anger. The last budget presented by the Coalition government was according to most analysts and respected journalists, unfair as it targeted the working class and middle class while favouring the upper class and big business.
The spill failed but it was noted that one third of the caucus ( MPs) had no confidence in their leader, who they think, was not doing a good job. Tony Abbott who survived the spill motion asked for more time to prove himself as it was only half term of his mandate. He also promised that he would consult the party more before taking important decisions. "There will be no more the captain's call." he said.
Since that day, there has been unrest in the Liberal party and the performance of Tony Abbott is watched closely by the backbenchers mainly.
Going back, it was a reality that the Labor Party lost the 2012 elections, because of the instability in the party, rather that the coalition winning. It is also to be acknowledge that Tony Abbott was an effective opposition leader who crucified the Labor government and nailed their coffin each time he had an occasion. The slogans of the Coalition Government during the campaign also found resonance within the electorate: Stop the boats, repeal the Carbon tax, repeal the mining tax were what the people wanted. But it looks like for Tony Abbott and his ministers, being in opposition is much easier than governing. While trying to fix the budget and redress the economy, they did a lot of harm to those most vulnerable: pensioners, families, unemployed, and university students. They also made big cuts to education and health and to the ABC and SBS. The liberals who promised to bring the budget to surplus faced the reality that it is easier said than done. After 18 months in government the budget situation is worse so much so that they cannot say when the budget will go in surplus let alone be balanced. All these factors have turned voters away from Tony and his party although they have stopped the boats, repealed the taxes.
The unrest nevertheless continues in the Liberal party because many MPs have already seen the danger looming. They think that it is a mammoth task for the government to be popular among voters again and that Tony Abbott is not the right candidate to lead them to the next elections and win. Apart from the backbenchers many political analyst like Paul Kelly, Peter Van Olsen, Miranda Devine, Janet Albreit, Eleonor Taylor, Karen Middleton, Richo, and others also espouse the opinion that Tony Abbott's days are numbered. The eyes are now turning to Malcolm Turnbull and Julie Bishop to step up but none of the two most popular candidates has declared his/her intentions clearly yet. It could be that they are waiting for the right moment, closer to the elections and they do not want the change to be as brutal as it was within the Labor party. They would prefer see Tony Abbott die on his own sword i.e. that he step down in a gallant way for the benefit of the party.
Interesting time ahead.
GDL
George at Studio 2GLF 89.3 fm
Broadcasting Emission Kontak
Monday, 2 March 2015
Tuesday, 10 February 2015
Mauritian Politics : The demise of Navin Ramgoolam
The demise of Navin Ramgoolam
by GDL
There is creole proverb which says "Penan ballon monter ki pas descendre".
Unfortunately some like Navin Ramgoolam have always thought that once in power they will always be in power. Stephanie Anquetil, a firm admirer and follower of Navin Ramgoolam once told me that " Lambition de Navin est de battre le record de son pere et de REGNER sur l'ile Maurice."
So this was the mindset of NR since he was made PM. Having got a good taste of power and the privileges attached to his position, he did not want to let go, let alone share these with anyone else. To be in power and stay in power, he has used others like the MMM, the PMSD, the MSM but more so he played on the emotions of the Hindus by always referring to his father SSR as the father of independent Mauritius. If his father has been a landmark of Mauritian politics, Navin never achieved the level. As mentioned above, he used others to be in power and once in power he made others work for him as he is well-known to be a lazy PM who took ages to make a decision. It is said that files keep piling on his desk, behind which he smoked his cigar.
Having been Prime Minister of Mauritius for 15 years, he has enjoyed to the fullest the many advantages by way of travelling,( the Business class of Mk was like his private room) partying, cocktail, women, private parties, dinner caviar and champagne in the best hotels in Mauritius and abroad. He said that he has class and wears Rolex watch, drives Rolls Royce and Aston Martin. He was such a womaniser that he was called "le demon de minuit" as he visited the women (married or not, at night far from the public eyes.( At least that's what he thought !).
Navin was kicked out of power in 2000 following a Macarena party and other "scandals" but managed to come back in 2005 after running a vicious communal campaign against Paul Berenger.
When back as PM in 2005, he restarted his "belle vie" again while making Rama Sithanen doing all the work. In 2010 he would have been kicked out of power if the MSM of the Jughnuth did not come to his rescue. Not listening to the warning of the electors in 2010, and blinded by his natural instinct of enjoying and making the most of his position, he continued more that before to the extent of now having an official mistress to whom he gave undue favours at the expense of taxpayers money. The women consequently became very very powerful where all doors were opened to her. The airport of Mauritius was virtually her private property to the extent that she did not even pay the rent for all the shops she had there. She now owns a mansion in Floreal and apartments in Venise and Milan with the blessing of his master Navin. There had also many doggy transactions under Navin's reign where corruptions were at their best. He favoured other friends and ministers and made them millionaires. Navin must have been warned by some of his good friends, like Stephanie, that he was going a bit too far but he was so sure that he would get re-elected that he did not care less. When the elections were getting close the NIU reported to him that " zafaire pas bon". So he had to find a new strategy. He managed to fish a shark (requin) Paul Berenger and the MMM, with a big bait ( post of PM) but that was like giving crumbs to the dogs; he would be President with full power for seven years. This is where he thought that he would break his father's record and continue to reign over Mauritius as Stephanie related.
Well, well, on 10 December 2014, the fortunes of Navin turned into nightmare. The people rejected him and his party totally and hence started his misfortunes. Meanwhile "la siren" smelling the rat had fled the country with a huge sum of money. The police says it could be around Rs800 million.
The police meanwhile was reopening the Roches Noires affair. There are many corroborative statements from witnesses that Navin Ramgoolam was at his bungalow on the night of the burglary. It is even reported he hosted the "soiree mondaine" alongside his mistress Nandanee Soornack.
It is therefore obvious, on the basis of the eye witnesses that Navin had lied and misled parliament while replying to a PNQ of the leader of the opposition. Misleading parliament is indeed a serious offence but he did not care less and he was at the time above the law. He was untouchable and was allowed anything and everything under the Mauritians sun: Navin le tout puissant. But he was at the same time viewed by the people as a dictator, a despot, an immoral person, un adulter.
His worries became worse when lately the police found millions and millions of bank notes at his Riverwalk residence. Navin was consequently questioned, arrested and brought before the courts. He is accused of perverting the course of justice and money laundering.
Whether he will be sentenced to prison or not remains to be seen as many do not have faith in the Mauritian justice system, rightly or wrongly. But the people of Mauritius have already judged and sentence him once on the 10th of December 2014 by kicking him out of government and not electing him in his seat. With the advent of he millions found at his place, he has again been tried by the media, and the people of Mauritius have completely written him off. People now realised how bad a PM he was and the extent of corruptions, cover up, copinage, nepotism, cronyism which occurred under his reign.
There is an end to everything and this is the end of Navin Ramgoolam. The end of the lion's reign; he is now but a lion "empaille" as said SAJ lately.
Ballon Navin finn eclater au plasir de tout citoyen honetre.
GDL
by GDL
There is creole proverb which says "Penan ballon monter ki pas descendre".
Unfortunately some like Navin Ramgoolam have always thought that once in power they will always be in power. Stephanie Anquetil, a firm admirer and follower of Navin Ramgoolam once told me that " Lambition de Navin est de battre le record de son pere et de REGNER sur l'ile Maurice."
So this was the mindset of NR since he was made PM. Having got a good taste of power and the privileges attached to his position, he did not want to let go, let alone share these with anyone else. To be in power and stay in power, he has used others like the MMM, the PMSD, the MSM but more so he played on the emotions of the Hindus by always referring to his father SSR as the father of independent Mauritius. If his father has been a landmark of Mauritian politics, Navin never achieved the level. As mentioned above, he used others to be in power and once in power he made others work for him as he is well-known to be a lazy PM who took ages to make a decision. It is said that files keep piling on his desk, behind which he smoked his cigar.
Having been Prime Minister of Mauritius for 15 years, he has enjoyed to the fullest the many advantages by way of travelling,( the Business class of Mk was like his private room) partying, cocktail, women, private parties, dinner caviar and champagne in the best hotels in Mauritius and abroad. He said that he has class and wears Rolex watch, drives Rolls Royce and Aston Martin. He was such a womaniser that he was called "le demon de minuit" as he visited the women (married or not, at night far from the public eyes.( At least that's what he thought !).
Navin was kicked out of power in 2000 following a Macarena party and other "scandals" but managed to come back in 2005 after running a vicious communal campaign against Paul Berenger.
When back as PM in 2005, he restarted his "belle vie" again while making Rama Sithanen doing all the work. In 2010 he would have been kicked out of power if the MSM of the Jughnuth did not come to his rescue. Not listening to the warning of the electors in 2010, and blinded by his natural instinct of enjoying and making the most of his position, he continued more that before to the extent of now having an official mistress to whom he gave undue favours at the expense of taxpayers money. The women consequently became very very powerful where all doors were opened to her. The airport of Mauritius was virtually her private property to the extent that she did not even pay the rent for all the shops she had there. She now owns a mansion in Floreal and apartments in Venise and Milan with the blessing of his master Navin. There had also many doggy transactions under Navin's reign where corruptions were at their best. He favoured other friends and ministers and made them millionaires. Navin must have been warned by some of his good friends, like Stephanie, that he was going a bit too far but he was so sure that he would get re-elected that he did not care less. When the elections were getting close the NIU reported to him that " zafaire pas bon". So he had to find a new strategy. He managed to fish a shark (requin) Paul Berenger and the MMM, with a big bait ( post of PM) but that was like giving crumbs to the dogs; he would be President with full power for seven years. This is where he thought that he would break his father's record and continue to reign over Mauritius as Stephanie related.
Well, well, on 10 December 2014, the fortunes of Navin turned into nightmare. The people rejected him and his party totally and hence started his misfortunes. Meanwhile "la siren" smelling the rat had fled the country with a huge sum of money. The police says it could be around Rs800 million.
The police meanwhile was reopening the Roches Noires affair. There are many corroborative statements from witnesses that Navin Ramgoolam was at his bungalow on the night of the burglary. It is even reported he hosted the "soiree mondaine" alongside his mistress Nandanee Soornack.
It is therefore obvious, on the basis of the eye witnesses that Navin had lied and misled parliament while replying to a PNQ of the leader of the opposition. Misleading parliament is indeed a serious offence but he did not care less and he was at the time above the law. He was untouchable and was allowed anything and everything under the Mauritians sun: Navin le tout puissant. But he was at the same time viewed by the people as a dictator, a despot, an immoral person, un adulter.
His worries became worse when lately the police found millions and millions of bank notes at his Riverwalk residence. Navin was consequently questioned, arrested and brought before the courts. He is accused of perverting the course of justice and money laundering.
Whether he will be sentenced to prison or not remains to be seen as many do not have faith in the Mauritian justice system, rightly or wrongly. But the people of Mauritius have already judged and sentence him once on the 10th of December 2014 by kicking him out of government and not electing him in his seat. With the advent of he millions found at his place, he has again been tried by the media, and the people of Mauritius have completely written him off. People now realised how bad a PM he was and the extent of corruptions, cover up, copinage, nepotism, cronyism which occurred under his reign.
There is an end to everything and this is the end of Navin Ramgoolam. The end of the lion's reign; he is now but a lion "empaille" as said SAJ lately.
Ballon Navin finn eclater au plasir de tout citoyen honetre.
GDL
Friday, 16 January 2015
Mauritian politics, a new wave
A new wave sweeping over Mauritius
by GDL
I last wrote my opinion piece one week before the general elections in Mauritius and was more concerned about the fate of Paul Raymond Berenger,( His last chance or his last mistake). I had a feeling at that he was making his last mistake but was at the same time playing his "va tout". I sensed that PRB knew it was the last joker he could play. I also sensed that the Labour Party of Navin Ramgoolam was at its weakest point as it was unconceivable that people of Mauritius would vote Navin in power following the many scandals, nepotism, corruptions, cover up, Nadaneee Soornak's affair, Gooljaury Eben tower's magouille, Betamax, MTID, etc... everywhere you looked was smelling rotten. But this is the Mauritian Labour Party's culture and it has been so since SSR with the corrupt ministers like Badry and Daby, SKJ, the Amsterdam boys, ministre molleton, you name it.
In 2010 Navin Ramgoolam was already out but managed to hang on to power thanks to a last minute alliance with the MSM. In 2014 things were different.
The people of Mauritius are patient, they follow politics closely, they were eagerly waiting for the time to give Navin Ramgoolam the boot. The writings were already on the walls. Navin Ramggolam probably knew that his days were numbered, so he had to find a way to hang on to power by hook or by crook. He knew that he has been a very bad PM who has given his blessings to all the corruptions, nepotism and cronyism which occurred during his "reign". But he had the ambition of continuing to reign over Mauritius and enjoy all the power and privilege conferred to him as PM. So, he had to find someone who would help him to realise his ultimate dream of being a full power President of Mauritius. He then invited his good friend PRB to koz kozer and gave him the biggest and most delicious bait: the post of PM which PRB has always ambitioned.
PRB should know that Navin was only using him as a "requin" to stay in power and avoid facing the justice system for all his wrongdoings, but he played the game. The MMM bureau politique also saw that was a unique opportunity for PRB to be PM, even even if a PM "marionette". Shocking decision/analysis from the MMM which has always been a "clean" party !!!
However all this dream of Navin and Paul turned into a nightmare on December 10 when they people of Mauritius showed them that they cannot be taken forgranted. Time for recrimination and time for clean up had arrived. So the people expressed themselves clearly and squarely but saying NO to the MMM/PRT alliance, NO to the second republic, NO to Navin as full-power President, NO to PRB as PM( marionette or not). The message was clear, we do not want Navin and Paul any more.
Since the installation of the new SAJ government, the people of Mauritius saw a new style, a new way of governing, a new hope for the country. But most of all the new government stuck to its promise during the campaign i.e. to clean up Mauritius and to put it on a new path. A new wind is now blowing from a new wave. This is what the people voted for and what they expect from "their" new government. The new government of SAJ began on a positive note to increase the old age pension and to fix the water problem and make sure that the expectations of the people are met. The political nominees and other super advisers were given their marching orders and investigations carried out on past wrongdoings. The scandals of allocating state land to the friends of Navin Ramgoolam were brought to light as well as the contract of Airways coffee among others came up to the delight of " Le pep".
What really happened at Roches Noires bungalow are now being uncovered and it becomes clear that Navin Ramgoolam was having a party at his bungalow with his mistress Nandanee Soornak and others. The intriguing part is whether that famous party and the breaking that night in the bungalow has is a direct link with the death of the poor man in custody! Was he deliberately "killed" because he surprised Navin in company of Nandanee all alone? Did he blackmailed Navin? Was there a fight between the two or whether he threatened Navin with a knife and stole his rolex en passant?There is a version which stipulates that Navin was too scared that the man would "talk" of what he saw in the bedroom and from there the need to "silence" him. Was there suicide or was he killed by some " men" directed from above? This is the question.
The investigation is underway but it seems clear that somehow Navin will have to answer whether he was the mastermind behind the whole saga/plot. SAJ promisedduring the electoral campaign that "Si mo pa envoy Navin endan, mo change mon nom". Was he in possession for all the information then to be brave enough to give such an undertaking to the people ? We will soon find out.
Coming back to PRB, it was indeed his last mistake as I mentioned in my last blog. Not a tactical mistake but a strategic and a fatal one which proved that he is just an amateur who could not read the mood of the electorate. Now it is too late for him to recognise that Navin was so unpopular; but the paradox is that he is the one who contributed to make Navin so unpopular. Bizzare isn't it? Who is the reasonable person who would ally with a very very unpopular person ? The answer is :the stupid PRB. So rest in peace PRB and Navin as you are gone for ever. Le pep na pli envi trouv zot ni zordi ni demain..
by GDL
I last wrote my opinion piece one week before the general elections in Mauritius and was more concerned about the fate of Paul Raymond Berenger,( His last chance or his last mistake). I had a feeling at that he was making his last mistake but was at the same time playing his "va tout". I sensed that PRB knew it was the last joker he could play. I also sensed that the Labour Party of Navin Ramgoolam was at its weakest point as it was unconceivable that people of Mauritius would vote Navin in power following the many scandals, nepotism, corruptions, cover up, Nadaneee Soornak's affair, Gooljaury Eben tower's magouille, Betamax, MTID, etc... everywhere you looked was smelling rotten. But this is the Mauritian Labour Party's culture and it has been so since SSR with the corrupt ministers like Badry and Daby, SKJ, the Amsterdam boys, ministre molleton, you name it.
In 2010 Navin Ramgoolam was already out but managed to hang on to power thanks to a last minute alliance with the MSM. In 2014 things were different.
The people of Mauritius are patient, they follow politics closely, they were eagerly waiting for the time to give Navin Ramgoolam the boot. The writings were already on the walls. Navin Ramggolam probably knew that his days were numbered, so he had to find a way to hang on to power by hook or by crook. He knew that he has been a very bad PM who has given his blessings to all the corruptions, nepotism and cronyism which occurred during his "reign". But he had the ambition of continuing to reign over Mauritius and enjoy all the power and privilege conferred to him as PM. So, he had to find someone who would help him to realise his ultimate dream of being a full power President of Mauritius. He then invited his good friend PRB to koz kozer and gave him the biggest and most delicious bait: the post of PM which PRB has always ambitioned.
PRB should know that Navin was only using him as a "requin" to stay in power and avoid facing the justice system for all his wrongdoings, but he played the game. The MMM bureau politique also saw that was a unique opportunity for PRB to be PM, even even if a PM "marionette". Shocking decision/analysis from the MMM which has always been a "clean" party !!!
However all this dream of Navin and Paul turned into a nightmare on December 10 when they people of Mauritius showed them that they cannot be taken forgranted. Time for recrimination and time for clean up had arrived. So the people expressed themselves clearly and squarely but saying NO to the MMM/PRT alliance, NO to the second republic, NO to Navin as full-power President, NO to PRB as PM( marionette or not). The message was clear, we do not want Navin and Paul any more.
Since the installation of the new SAJ government, the people of Mauritius saw a new style, a new way of governing, a new hope for the country. But most of all the new government stuck to its promise during the campaign i.e. to clean up Mauritius and to put it on a new path. A new wind is now blowing from a new wave. This is what the people voted for and what they expect from "their" new government. The new government of SAJ began on a positive note to increase the old age pension and to fix the water problem and make sure that the expectations of the people are met. The political nominees and other super advisers were given their marching orders and investigations carried out on past wrongdoings. The scandals of allocating state land to the friends of Navin Ramgoolam were brought to light as well as the contract of Airways coffee among others came up to the delight of " Le pep".
What really happened at Roches Noires bungalow are now being uncovered and it becomes clear that Navin Ramgoolam was having a party at his bungalow with his mistress Nandanee Soornak and others. The intriguing part is whether that famous party and the breaking that night in the bungalow has is a direct link with the death of the poor man in custody! Was he deliberately "killed" because he surprised Navin in company of Nandanee all alone? Did he blackmailed Navin? Was there a fight between the two or whether he threatened Navin with a knife and stole his rolex en passant?There is a version which stipulates that Navin was too scared that the man would "talk" of what he saw in the bedroom and from there the need to "silence" him. Was there suicide or was he killed by some " men" directed from above? This is the question.
The investigation is underway but it seems clear that somehow Navin will have to answer whether he was the mastermind behind the whole saga/plot. SAJ promisedduring the electoral campaign that "Si mo pa envoy Navin endan, mo change mon nom". Was he in possession for all the information then to be brave enough to give such an undertaking to the people ? We will soon find out.
Coming back to PRB, it was indeed his last mistake as I mentioned in my last blog. Not a tactical mistake but a strategic and a fatal one which proved that he is just an amateur who could not read the mood of the electorate. Now it is too late for him to recognise that Navin was so unpopular; but the paradox is that he is the one who contributed to make Navin so unpopular. Bizzare isn't it? Who is the reasonable person who would ally with a very very unpopular person ? The answer is :the stupid PRB. So rest in peace PRB and Navin as you are gone for ever. Le pep na pli envi trouv zot ni zordi ni demain..
Thursday, 4 December 2014
Paul Raymond Berenger, his last chance or his last mistake ?
PRB, Last chance or Loser again ?
by GDL
Paul Raymond Berenger is now 70 years old and has been in politics for nearly 50 years. He started very young while a student in Europe. In the seventies he introduced left wing politics to Mauritians and many young ones followed his ideological path. He founded the Movement Militant Mauricien and became the leader. He first stood for general elections in 1976 when his party won the most seats but lost government. While in opposition his party grew in strength and for the general elections of 1982 won all the seats (60-0) in alliance with the PSM of Harris Bhodhoo. This alliance was PRB's fist mistake. The MMM did not need the PSM to win the elections as the Labor Party of SSR was already dead and Mauritius was bankrupt. Had PRB put himself as PM and the MMM facing the elections alone, they would have won by the same margin.
PRB soon realised his mistake when Bhoodho plotted against him and dragged Aneerod Jughnuth on his side and weaken PRB and his party. The second mistake that PRB made in the 1983 elections was to put himself as shadow Prime Minister which caused the Jughnuth and Bhodhoo to lead a vicious communal campaign against him as a non Hindu.
PRB and his MMM lost the subsequent elections. The bureau politque of the MMM knew from then on that it was impossible for the MMM alone to win the elections and started making alliances with the MSM of SAJ and the Laboor Party of Navin Ramgoolam. These alliances never worked and PRB and his MMM stayed in government for a short time only. These were again mistakes made by miscalculations and underestimating his opponents' "ruse" that they were only using the MMM to be in power.
In 2000 the MMM allied with the MSM on conditions that PRB would be PM for 2 years. They won overwhelmingly and that was the only time that PRB stayed in a government for its full duration. With the MSM, PRB lost the 2005 elections and again made the mistake of putting himself as PM and lost the 2010 elections. However the MMM was very effective in opposition.
Overall the MMM has not been in government for a long time during their 50 years existence. The militants stayed loyal to the party but was sick of being in the opposition and suffered discrimination from the Labour Party. Meanwhile the government of Navin Ramgoolam was under heaps of pressure and criticism for the many scandals, corruptions and nepotism, incompetence, and so on.
Time was coming for the 2015 elections and PRB made another tactical mistake of allying with the MSM (Remake 2000) on MSM's terms. The MSM was rated as only 4% in the polls and the MMM was 44%. Why did PRB gave an equal share to the MSM and put SAJ as PM was beyond comprehension, another big mistake again. The Labor party, on the other hand, was as weak as it was in 1982 and Navin Ramgolam knew it. Going to the elections alone or with the PMSD would be suicidal. The Remake 2000 was Navin's nightmare and so he had to break the alliance and attracted PRB in his nets. He has just revealed how he gave PRB "enn gros labouet" and hooked him.
For a fact PRB knew that he made a bad deal with the MSM and opted to join the PTr with a better deal. Better deal not so much for the MMM but rather for Navin who has the lion's share. PRB will be PM but Navin will be President with full power, even unlimited power, so much so that the opposition calling PRB "PM poupette".
Has PRB made another mistake or is it again another political amateurism and lack of political skills?
If the alliance MMM/ Ptr does not win 3/4 of seats, PRB will be the big loser again. But even if they win overwhelmingly Paul wll not be a full fledged PM as Navin will still have he power to sack him. So what is left for PRB ? The post of VPM for how long, as it is not in the agreement that he can be PM. His other option is to retire as VPM or asked to be muted to Reduit.
Love him or hate him PRB would have been the politician who has dominated the political landscape of Mauritius the most. He will be remembered and his place righly so among the great like Cure, Anquetil and Rozemont.
by GDL
Paul Raymond Berenger is now 70 years old and has been in politics for nearly 50 years. He started very young while a student in Europe. In the seventies he introduced left wing politics to Mauritians and many young ones followed his ideological path. He founded the Movement Militant Mauricien and became the leader. He first stood for general elections in 1976 when his party won the most seats but lost government. While in opposition his party grew in strength and for the general elections of 1982 won all the seats (60-0) in alliance with the PSM of Harris Bhodhoo. This alliance was PRB's fist mistake. The MMM did not need the PSM to win the elections as the Labor Party of SSR was already dead and Mauritius was bankrupt. Had PRB put himself as PM and the MMM facing the elections alone, they would have won by the same margin.
PRB soon realised his mistake when Bhoodho plotted against him and dragged Aneerod Jughnuth on his side and weaken PRB and his party. The second mistake that PRB made in the 1983 elections was to put himself as shadow Prime Minister which caused the Jughnuth and Bhodhoo to lead a vicious communal campaign against him as a non Hindu.
PRB and his MMM lost the subsequent elections. The bureau politque of the MMM knew from then on that it was impossible for the MMM alone to win the elections and started making alliances with the MSM of SAJ and the Laboor Party of Navin Ramgoolam. These alliances never worked and PRB and his MMM stayed in government for a short time only. These were again mistakes made by miscalculations and underestimating his opponents' "ruse" that they were only using the MMM to be in power.
In 2000 the MMM allied with the MSM on conditions that PRB would be PM for 2 years. They won overwhelmingly and that was the only time that PRB stayed in a government for its full duration. With the MSM, PRB lost the 2005 elections and again made the mistake of putting himself as PM and lost the 2010 elections. However the MMM was very effective in opposition.
Overall the MMM has not been in government for a long time during their 50 years existence. The militants stayed loyal to the party but was sick of being in the opposition and suffered discrimination from the Labour Party. Meanwhile the government of Navin Ramgoolam was under heaps of pressure and criticism for the many scandals, corruptions and nepotism, incompetence, and so on.
Time was coming for the 2015 elections and PRB made another tactical mistake of allying with the MSM (Remake 2000) on MSM's terms. The MSM was rated as only 4% in the polls and the MMM was 44%. Why did PRB gave an equal share to the MSM and put SAJ as PM was beyond comprehension, another big mistake again. The Labor party, on the other hand, was as weak as it was in 1982 and Navin Ramgolam knew it. Going to the elections alone or with the PMSD would be suicidal. The Remake 2000 was Navin's nightmare and so he had to break the alliance and attracted PRB in his nets. He has just revealed how he gave PRB "enn gros labouet" and hooked him.
For a fact PRB knew that he made a bad deal with the MSM and opted to join the PTr with a better deal. Better deal not so much for the MMM but rather for Navin who has the lion's share. PRB will be PM but Navin will be President with full power, even unlimited power, so much so that the opposition calling PRB "PM poupette".
Has PRB made another mistake or is it again another political amateurism and lack of political skills?
If the alliance MMM/ Ptr does not win 3/4 of seats, PRB will be the big loser again. But even if they win overwhelmingly Paul wll not be a full fledged PM as Navin will still have he power to sack him. So what is left for PRB ? The post of VPM for how long, as it is not in the agreement that he can be PM. His other option is to retire as VPM or asked to be muted to Reduit.
Love him or hate him PRB would have been the politician who has dominated the political landscape of Mauritius the most. He will be remembered and his place righly so among the great like Cure, Anquetil and Rozemont.
Wednesday, 3 December 2014
Elections a l'ile Maurice, Ramgoolam sera-t-il President ?
Non a Navin Ramgoolam comme President
par GDL
Le Mercredi 10 Decembre 2014 les elections generales auront lieu a L'ile Maurice. Ce sera pas une election comme les autres car ce sera un referendum pour une deuxieme republique, cad que la constitution de L'ile Maurice va changer si jamais Ramgoolam et Berenger arrivent a convaincre les electeurs que le changement de statut de L'Ile republique sera une bonne chose.
L'histoire commence avec un accord entre des deux plus grands partis politique de L'Ile Maurice cad le MMM de PRB et le Parti Travaillste de NR. Alors que pendant plus de 40 ans ces deux partis se tiraient des boulets rouges en contestant les elections, voila qu'a la fin ils se reunissent pour un partage de pouvoir. Au faite, c'est pas un partage equitable car c'est Navin Ramgoolam qui est le grand gagnant de cette alliance. Alors que Navin Ramgoolam sera President avec plein pouvoir. Paul Berenger lui sera Premier Ministre avec des pouvoirs limites.
Pour realiser ce project de deuxieme republique, il faut que L'allaince MMM/PTr remporte 3/4 des sieges a pourvoir. Si on se base sur leurs performances du passé et selon les mathematiques politiques cela est realisabe, mais comme en politique, surtout a Maurice, tout est possible, il n'y a aucune garantie, au prealable, que les 3/4 sont deja acquis.
L'optimisme de l'allaince MMM/PTr repose sur la faiblesse de l'opposition qui se compose du MSM de A Jughnuth, le PMSD de Xavier L Duval et le nouveau parti de Ivan Collendavello, le Moveman Liberateur. Selon les sondages de l'annee deniere, le MSM etait cote a 4 pourcent et le PMSD a 2 pourcent. Paradoxalement le MSM et le PMSD etaient aux dernieres elections, et jusqu'a recemment, les allies du PTr et faisaient meme parti de government de Navin Ramgoolam. Donc pour ces elections les ennemis d'hier sont les allies et les amis d'hier sont des adversaires. Comique n'est-ce pas?? Chez le MMM ils voient dans cet accord la seule chance pour acceder au pouvoir et pour leur leader charismatique, PRB, de devenir PM meme avec des pouvoirs reduits. Ils ont ete trop longtemps dans l'opposition. Pour eux c'est une occasion a ne pas rater.
La question qui preocupent les observateurs, politologues et journalistes est si l'alliance MMM/PTr atteinda les 3/4 pour pouvoir changer la constitution et installer la deuxime republique? Les opinions different parmi les mauriciens. Il y a une certaine crainte que changer la constitution serait donner trop de pouvoir a Navin Ramgoolam et que la democracie en souffrirait. Il y a encore beaucoup de mauriciens, sutout les intellectuels, qui n'apprecient pas la polique de Navin Ramgoolam car ses annees comme PM ont ete marques par des scandales, corruptions et nepotisme.
D'autre part l'opposition ne joiuit pas d'une forte credibilite et ne se present pas vraiement comme une alternative serieuse. Il ont peu de chance pour remporter les elections. Neanmois l'opposition pourrait beneficier des votes neagtifs cad obtenir le vote de ceux qui s'opposent a la deuxieme republique et ne voient pas d'un bon oeil le changement drastique propose par Paul et Navin. Il faut aussi admettre que leur leader SAJ est encore populaire chex les hindous pour avoir ete PM pendant 13 ans et President pendant presceque 5 ans.
Est-ce qu'on va vers un duel Jughnuth/Ramgoolam ou un duel stauto-quo ou chagement ?
The ides of December is here but not gone comme disait Julius Ceasar sur son chemin de la mort. Qui sera assasine ? Qui suivira ? On le saura bientot...
GDL.
par GDL
Le Mercredi 10 Decembre 2014 les elections generales auront lieu a L'ile Maurice. Ce sera pas une election comme les autres car ce sera un referendum pour une deuxieme republique, cad que la constitution de L'ile Maurice va changer si jamais Ramgoolam et Berenger arrivent a convaincre les electeurs que le changement de statut de L'Ile republique sera une bonne chose.
L'histoire commence avec un accord entre des deux plus grands partis politique de L'Ile Maurice cad le MMM de PRB et le Parti Travaillste de NR. Alors que pendant plus de 40 ans ces deux partis se tiraient des boulets rouges en contestant les elections, voila qu'a la fin ils se reunissent pour un partage de pouvoir. Au faite, c'est pas un partage equitable car c'est Navin Ramgoolam qui est le grand gagnant de cette alliance. Alors que Navin Ramgoolam sera President avec plein pouvoir. Paul Berenger lui sera Premier Ministre avec des pouvoirs limites.
Pour realiser ce project de deuxieme republique, il faut que L'allaince MMM/PTr remporte 3/4 des sieges a pourvoir. Si on se base sur leurs performances du passé et selon les mathematiques politiques cela est realisabe, mais comme en politique, surtout a Maurice, tout est possible, il n'y a aucune garantie, au prealable, que les 3/4 sont deja acquis.
L'optimisme de l'allaince MMM/PTr repose sur la faiblesse de l'opposition qui se compose du MSM de A Jughnuth, le PMSD de Xavier L Duval et le nouveau parti de Ivan Collendavello, le Moveman Liberateur. Selon les sondages de l'annee deniere, le MSM etait cote a 4 pourcent et le PMSD a 2 pourcent. Paradoxalement le MSM et le PMSD etaient aux dernieres elections, et jusqu'a recemment, les allies du PTr et faisaient meme parti de government de Navin Ramgoolam. Donc pour ces elections les ennemis d'hier sont les allies et les amis d'hier sont des adversaires. Comique n'est-ce pas?? Chez le MMM ils voient dans cet accord la seule chance pour acceder au pouvoir et pour leur leader charismatique, PRB, de devenir PM meme avec des pouvoirs reduits. Ils ont ete trop longtemps dans l'opposition. Pour eux c'est une occasion a ne pas rater.
La question qui preocupent les observateurs, politologues et journalistes est si l'alliance MMM/PTr atteinda les 3/4 pour pouvoir changer la constitution et installer la deuxime republique? Les opinions different parmi les mauriciens. Il y a une certaine crainte que changer la constitution serait donner trop de pouvoir a Navin Ramgoolam et que la democracie en souffrirait. Il y a encore beaucoup de mauriciens, sutout les intellectuels, qui n'apprecient pas la polique de Navin Ramgoolam car ses annees comme PM ont ete marques par des scandales, corruptions et nepotisme.
D'autre part l'opposition ne joiuit pas d'une forte credibilite et ne se present pas vraiement comme une alternative serieuse. Il ont peu de chance pour remporter les elections. Neanmois l'opposition pourrait beneficier des votes neagtifs cad obtenir le vote de ceux qui s'opposent a la deuxieme republique et ne voient pas d'un bon oeil le changement drastique propose par Paul et Navin. Il faut aussi admettre que leur leader SAJ est encore populaire chex les hindous pour avoir ete PM pendant 13 ans et President pendant presceque 5 ans.
Est-ce qu'on va vers un duel Jughnuth/Ramgoolam ou un duel stauto-quo ou chagement ?
The ides of December is here but not gone comme disait Julius Ceasar sur son chemin de la mort. Qui sera assasine ? Qui suivira ? On le saura bientot...
GDL.
Wednesday, 12 November 2014
Mauritian politics General elections on 10 December 2014
General elections in
BY GDL
Now it is official, the people of
Anyway through the Mauritian media, which are now online, Mauritians and Rodriguans living overseas are following closely, and with much passion, the campaign trail. In
Then the conversation will be more analytical regarding the different parties and alliances. The real debate is why should there be alliances at every election? Why can't each party face the voters alone, and if need be, a coalition afterwards. This is a very complex issue as there have always been alliances since the 1967 elections. It is clear from the analysis and results of each election, a party alone cannot win in its own right even though they all proclaim to be national parties. So the leaders do not take chances and prefer to join forces to stand a better chance of winning.
The rationale is also that not all parties cut across all communities: The PMSD is a Creole-base party, The Labour Party is for Hindus, and The MMM is more an urban one and the MSM a rural one. All leaders have to compose with the reality of
So what is at stake in the forthcoming elections? Not much for the average citizen, the manifestoes of the parties are rather vague and incomplete. They all talk about eradicating poverty and job creation without explaining how they will do it. Then there are slogans and promises like raising the old age pension, fixing the economy, cleaning up corruption, etc...Playing like a broken record.
The people of Mauritius, are rather disillusioned by their politicians, Those in power want to continue "jouir" and those who were in power yesterday did not "jouir" enough and want to come back for more. There are only a few new faces, no new policies, and no hope of a better future. The people of
The scenario of the second republic is tailor made for Navin Ramgoolam to be the future elected President of Mauritius where he will have full power and immune from any scrutiny. To achieve his ambition and to reign for as long as he is alive, he managed to bribe Paul Raymond Berenger the leader of the MMM, by giving him the Prime ministership with reduced power.
The MMM people agreed to join the alliance of Unite and Modernite as they see this as the only way PRB can become PM after having been in the opposition ( not to say Karo Kann) for most of his life in politics. The militants are sick of being in opposition and be marginalised. Now they also want their "boutes' and maybe rightly so. However there are long time militants who do not concur with this view. Some of them like Ivan Collendavello and Luchmeenaraidoo broke ranks and join the
Not voting can be seen as a not accomplishing one's civic right and not participating to the affairs of the country and if such is the case then they will vote blank most probably. Vote blank is very meaningful in many ways, it can be a protest vote or telling the politicians I do not trust you or again you are not good enough.
The ides of December is not far, will friends continue to be friends after the elections when all is fair even though it has been foul.
The clock is ticking while the politicians are begging for votes. For once and for a short while the people are in power. Unfortunately not beyond the 1oth of December because after that date those in power will just forget the people and look after themselves.
GDL.
Thursday, 24 July 2014
Who is a smarter or better liar Tony or Julia ?
Without Prejudice
Lies and politics in Australia
by GDL
"Fresh from being endorsed through the polls, big ears and big tummy put forward a tough budget where the working class and the middle class will have to bear the pain and contribute to reduce the deficit. Thinking that they the people of Australia just voted them massively and overwhelmingly, Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck thought that the people would allow them to govern at their ease. But the new government's budget was a catastrophe to say the least"
Tony Abbott and his mates while in the opposition did not waste a chance to accuse Labor of broken promises and targeting particularly Julia Gillard to have lied to the Australian public by introducing a carbon tax. No one will forget the many times the word LIAR was used by the then opposition. No one will forget Tony Abbott talking, in front of the big poster " Julia Liar", in Canberra,at a rally organised by his good friend Allan Jones. The opposition and their mates must have used their word liar more than a million times (without exaggeration) during the time Labor was in power.
As pointed out previously during the electoral campaign, instead of playing cool, Tony Abbott promised to the Australians that there will be no new taxes, that he will govern for all Australians, that hgovernment will be caring, responsible, transparent, effective, etc...a perfect government. No surprise that these big promises contributed to a change of government as Australians were fed up of instability and horse trading within the Labor ranks. Australians were eager to turn to a new style of government, a change from the Labor style and looking forward for a better Australia, a new generation of honest politicians.
It did not take long for Australians to find that they have been conned again and that . Once in government the Libs and Nats do not prove to be not better or different. Their first hypocrisy was the nomination of only one women in cabinet. Was this not through mesonigy or rational or meritocracy? Is this true that there is only Julie Bishop who can be a minister ? What about all these capable women elected with their party? What about Julie Dwyer, just to name one of them ? Maybe they are only good to have sex appeal like Fiona !!! Suddenly the people discovered how they too were using public money for personal use, travelling to private parties paid the public purse. Even Tony Abbott was using public funds to attend "his" charity fundraising. Then came all sort of revelations about their dishonesty and lies.
The bigger lies were to be unravelled in the budget. Taxes and levies come from every corner, fuel levy, budget deficit tax, payment of $7 to see the GP, students fees and interest rates to increase, pensions cuts, cut in education and health, no more family benefits, no more kids schools bonus, new indexation of pensions, and so on and so forth...if these are not lies then Tony Abbott must be a saint.
In his semi-biography, Joe Hockey admitted that he wanted a tougher budget, more taxes to be introduced to reduce the deficit. Again he wanted the poor and middle class to pay the budget deficit levy/tax. And all these while tax was removed from big polluters and mining giants and pay parental leave to the big end of town, those earning a million or more would get six months full pay. What a joke !!!
The backlash and reaction received from the budget demonstrated that Tony and his mates cannot take Australians for a drive. People now know that they( Tony nd mates) are not different from those they accused of mismanagement and rotting the system. Voters now know that it is not only people from Labor who know how to lie to be elected and get into power. Voters now know who are on their side and who are on the side of Rupert Murdoch, the big polluters, the mining giants and the rich women who want to have a baby. Now voters know that the Liberals, beginning with Tony Abbot,can lie and have lied to the people.
Maybe there should be another movie: Politics, Lies and Tony Abbott.
Lies and politics in Australia
by GDL
"Fresh from being endorsed through the polls, big ears and big tummy put forward a tough budget where the working class and the middle class will have to bear the pain and contribute to reduce the deficit. Thinking that they the people of Australia just voted them massively and overwhelmingly, Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck thought that the people would allow them to govern at their ease. But the new government's budget was a catastrophe to say the least"
Tony Abbott and his mates while in the opposition did not waste a chance to accuse Labor of broken promises and targeting particularly Julia Gillard to have lied to the Australian public by introducing a carbon tax. No one will forget the many times the word LIAR was used by the then opposition. No one will forget Tony Abbott talking, in front of the big poster " Julia Liar", in Canberra,at a rally organised by his good friend Allan Jones. The opposition and their mates must have used their word liar more than a million times (without exaggeration) during the time Labor was in power.
As pointed out previously during the electoral campaign, instead of playing cool, Tony Abbott promised to the Australians that there will be no new taxes, that he will govern for all Australians, that hgovernment will be caring, responsible, transparent, effective, etc...a perfect government. No surprise that these big promises contributed to a change of government as Australians were fed up of instability and horse trading within the Labor ranks. Australians were eager to turn to a new style of government, a change from the Labor style and looking forward for a better Australia, a new generation of honest politicians.
It did not take long for Australians to find that they have been conned again and that . Once in government the Libs and Nats do not prove to be not better or different. Their first hypocrisy was the nomination of only one women in cabinet. Was this not through mesonigy or rational or meritocracy? Is this true that there is only Julie Bishop who can be a minister ? What about all these capable women elected with their party? What about Julie Dwyer, just to name one of them ? Maybe they are only good to have sex appeal like Fiona !!! Suddenly the people discovered how they too were using public money for personal use, travelling to private parties paid the public purse. Even Tony Abbott was using public funds to attend "his" charity fundraising. Then came all sort of revelations about their dishonesty and lies.
The bigger lies were to be unravelled in the budget. Taxes and levies come from every corner, fuel levy, budget deficit tax, payment of $7 to see the GP, students fees and interest rates to increase, pensions cuts, cut in education and health, no more family benefits, no more kids schools bonus, new indexation of pensions, and so on and so forth...if these are not lies then Tony Abbott must be a saint.
In his semi-biography, Joe Hockey admitted that he wanted a tougher budget, more taxes to be introduced to reduce the deficit. Again he wanted the poor and middle class to pay the budget deficit levy/tax. And all these while tax was removed from big polluters and mining giants and pay parental leave to the big end of town, those earning a million or more would get six months full pay. What a joke !!!
The backlash and reaction received from the budget demonstrated that Tony and his mates cannot take Australians for a drive. People now know that they( Tony nd mates) are not different from those they accused of mismanagement and rotting the system. Voters now know that it is not only people from Labor who know how to lie to be elected and get into power. Voters now know who are on their side and who are on the side of Rupert Murdoch, the big polluters, the mining giants and the rich women who want to have a baby. Now voters know that the Liberals, beginning with Tony Abbot,can lie and have lied to the people.
Maybe there should be another movie: Politics, Lies and Tony Abbott.
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